Nuclear Deal Predictions & Odds· 112 markets
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
$364k Vol.
$197k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$364k Vol.$197k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
59%
Pakistan
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?
$1.5m Vol.
$53k Liq.
Ends in about 13 hours
$1.5m Vol.$53k Liq.Ends in about 13 hours
1%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
$906k Vol.
$22k Liq.
24
Ends in 3 months
$906k Vol.$22k Liq.24Ends in 3 months
34%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
$445k Vol.
$40k Liq.
28
Ends in 9 months
$445k Vol.$40k Liq.28Ends in 9 months
50%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
$126k Vol.
$26k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$126k Vol.$26k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
14%
Yes
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$12k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$12k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
$2.2m Vol.
$51k Liq.
Ends in about 13 hours
$2.2m Vol.$51k Liq.Ends in about 13 hours
1%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
$148k Vol.
$69k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$148k Vol.$69k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
17%
Yes
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
$42k Vol.
$43k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$42k Vol.$43k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
32%
December 31
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
$141k Vol.
$44k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$141k Vol.$44k Liq.Ends in 3 months
27%
Yes
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
$4k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$4k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in 9 months
18%
Yes
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$28k Vol.
$13k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$28k Vol.$13k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
41%
April 30
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$96k Vol.
$48k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$96k Vol.$48k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
48%
US x Iran Ceasefire
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$129k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$129k Vol.$22k Liq.Ends in 3 months
16%
Yes
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
$530k Vol.
$43k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$530k Vol.$43k Liq.Ends in 9 months
20%
Yes
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by...?
$596k Vol.
$15k Liq.
131
Ends in about 13 hours
$596k Vol.$15k Liq.131Ends in about 13 hours
4%
Yes
Ukraine hits Moscow by...?
$139k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in about 13 hours
$139k Vol.$16k Liq.Ends in about 13 hours
12%
April 30
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$99k Vol.
$14k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$99k Vol.$14k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
13%
Yes
Russia nuclear test by...?
$1.3m Vol.
$57k Liq.
7
Ends in about 13 hours
$1.3m Vol.$57k Liq.7Ends in about 13 hours
0%
Yes