Diplomacy Ceasefire Predictions & Odds· 125 markets
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$62.0m Vol.
$1.3m Liq.
🔥$3.0m today
1,219
$62.0m Vol.🔥$3.0m today$1.3m Liq.1,219
74%
December 31
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$387k Vol.
$49k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$387k Vol.$49k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
40%
June 30
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$52k Vol.
$10k Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
$52k Vol.$10k Liq.5Ends in 3 months
30%
Yes
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$60k Vol.
$14k Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
$60k Vol.$14k Liq.5Ends in 3 months
53%
Yes
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
$28k Vol.
$12k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$28k Vol.$12k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
33%
Leadership Change
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
$1.0m Vol.
$59k Liq.
🔥$62k today
Ends in about 18 hours
$1.0m Vol.🔥$62k today$59k Liq.Ends in about 18 hours
75%
June 30
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
$359k Vol.
$224k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$359k Vol.$224k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
59%
Pakistan
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?
$197k Vol.
$38k Liq.
6
Ends in about 1 month
$197k Vol.$38k Liq.6Ends in about 1 month
10%
April 10
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
$7.7m Vol.
$303k Liq.
🔥$316k today
154
Ends in 3 months
$7.7m Vol.🔥$316k today$303k Liq.154Ends in 3 months
67%
June 30
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$8.5m Vol.
$451k Liq.
🔥$259k today
320
Ends in about 18 hours
$8.5m Vol.🔥$259k today$451k Liq.320Ends in about 18 hours
80%
December 31
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?
$1.5m Vol.
$47k Liq.
🔥$53k today
Ends in about 18 hours
$1.5m Vol.🔥$53k today$47k Liq.Ends in about 18 hours
1%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
$2.2m Vol.
$51k Liq.
Ends in about 18 hours
$2.2m Vol.$51k Liq.Ends in about 18 hours
1%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
$120k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$120k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
14%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
$148k Vol.
$68k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$148k Vol.$68k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
17%
Yes
Will Vance visit the Middle East by..?
$97k Vol.
$25k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$97k Vol.$25k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
22%
April 10
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
$41k Vol.
$48k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$41k Vol.$48k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
33%
December 31
Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31?
$122k Vol.
$16k Liq.
21
Ends in about 18 hours
$122k Vol.$16k Liq.21Ends in about 18 hours
0%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
$141k Vol.
$43k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$141k Vol.$43k Liq.Ends in 3 months
27%
Yes
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$28k Vol.
$19k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$28k Vol.$19k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
46%
April 30