Nuclear Deal Predictions & Odds· 133 markets
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
$369k Vol.
$151k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$369k Vol.$151k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
57%
Pakistan
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?
$1.5m Vol.
$47k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$1.5m Vol.$47k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
1%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
$908k Vol.
$18k Liq.
25
Ends in 3 months
$908k Vol.$18k Liq.25Ends in 3 months
31%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
$447k Vol.
$30k Liq.
28
Ends in 9 months
$447k Vol.$30k Liq.28Ends in 9 months
50%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
$127k Vol.
$29k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$127k Vol.$29k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
13%
Yes
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$9k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$9k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
13%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
$2.2m Vol.
$49k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$2.2m Vol.$49k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
1%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
$155k Vol.
$48k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$155k Vol.$48k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
14%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
$148k Vol.
$31k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$148k Vol.$31k Liq.Ends in 3 months
28%
Yes
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
$46k Vol.
$42k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$46k Vol.$42k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
32%
December 31
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
$4k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$4k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in 9 months
18%
Yes
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$29k Vol.
$12k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$29k Vol.$12k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
42%
April 30
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?
$22k Vol.
$2k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$22k Vol.$2k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
26%
Yes
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$97k Vol.
$33k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$97k Vol.$33k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
47%
US x Iran Ceasefire
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$129k Vol.
$15k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$129k Vol.$15k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
16%
Yes
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
$530k Vol.
$33k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$530k Vol.$33k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
Ukraine hits Moscow by...?
$139k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$139k Vol.$15k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
12%
April 30
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by...?
$598k Vol.
$16k Liq.
132
Ends in about 5 hours
$598k Vol.$16k Liq.132Ends in about 5 hours
3%
Yes
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$100k Vol.
$12k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$12k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
12%
Yes