Engagement Predictions & Odds· 140 markets
G
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?
$463k Vol.
$28k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$463k Vol.$28k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
5%
Yes
U
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$80.9m Vol.
$2.6m Liq.
🔥$8.7m today
1,403
$80.9m Vol.🔥$8.7m today$2.6m Liq.1,403
73%
December 31
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.9m Vol.
$386k Liq.
🔥$497k today
Ends in 28 days
$1.9m Vol.🔥$497k today$386k Liq.Ends in 28 days
2%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$4.4m Vol.
$456k Liq.
🔥$262k today
Ends in 3 months
$4.4m Vol.🔥$262k today$456k Liq.Ends in 3 months
10%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
$12.4m Vol.
$490k Liq.
🔥$74k today
5,428
Ends in 9 months
$12.4m Vol.🔥$74k today$490k Liq.5,428Ends in 9 months
30%
Yes
I
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$430k Vol.
$38k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$430k Vol.$38k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
41%
June 30
C
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
$1.5m Vol.
$88k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$1.5m Vol.$88k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
C
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
$544k Vol.
$68k Liq.
31
Ends in 9 months
$544k Vol.$68k Liq.31Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$96k Vol.
$12k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$96k Vol.$12k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
33%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
$14k Vol.
$201k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$14k Vol.$201k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
5%
Yes
C
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
$209k Vol.
$39k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$209k Vol.$39k Liq.Ends in 9 months
23%
Yes
N
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
$1.4m Vol.
$104k Liq.
31
Ends in 9 months
$1.4m Vol.$104k Liq.31Ends in 9 months
14%
December 31
I
Middle East · Iran Regime
Internet Access restored in Iran by...?
$118k Vol.
$25k Liq.
31
Ends in 28 days
$118k Vol.$25k Liq.31Ends in 28 days
13%
April 30
P
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by...?
$134k Vol.
$12k Liq.
26
Ends in 3 months
$134k Vol.$12k Liq.26Ends in 3 months
27%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?
$3k Vol.
$86k Liq.
Ends in about 1 year
$3k Vol.$86k Liq.Ends in about 1 year
39%
Yes
U
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
$63k Vol.
$26k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$63k Vol.$26k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
38%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
$2k Vol.
$124k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
$2k Vol.$124k Liq.Ends in over 1 year
51%
Yes
W
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$102k Vol.
$43k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$102k Vol.$43k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
54%
US x Iran Ceasefire
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$75k Vol.
$22k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$75k Vol.$22k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
52%
Yes