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Fed Rates Predictions & Odds· 130 markets

AllPoliticsBusinessFinanceTrumpFederal ReserveFedUS PoliticsMAGAFed RatesEconomyDerivativesFOMCMacro SingleParlaysJerome PowellEconomic PolicyMacro IndicatorsTreasuriesWarshKevin WarshJudy SheltonChair Of The Federal Reserve
Fed decision in April?

Economy·Economic Policy

Fed decision in April?

$39.0m Vol.
$3.3m Liq.
🔥$2.1m today
21
Ends in 29 days

97%

No change

Fed Decision in July?

Economy·fomc

Fed Decision in July?

$2.7m Vol.
$261k Liq.
🔥$474k today
Ends in 4 months

78%

No change

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Economy·Business

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$14.7m Vol.
$1.2m Liq.
🔥$277k today
58
Ends in 9 months

34%

0 (0 bps)

Fed Decision in June?

Politics·Economic Policy

Fed Decision in June?

$4.7m Vol.
$895k Liq.
🔥$215k today
13
Ends in 3 months

88%

No change

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Economy·Fed

Fed rate hike in 2026?

$701k Vol.
$44k Liq.
🔥$51k today
27
Ends in 8 months

22%

Yes

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Economy·Fed

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

$715k Vol.
$116k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months

83%

Pause–Pause–Pause

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Economy·Economic Policy

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

$391k Vol.
$96k Liq.
19
Ends in 29 days

97%

Pause–Pause–Pause

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Economy·Fed

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

$2k Vol.
$136k Liq.
Ends in 4 months

76%

Pause–Pause–Pause

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

Politics·Fed

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

$10k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 29 days

43%

1

Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds above ___ by March 31?

Politics·Trump

Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds above ___ by March 31?

$0 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours

53%

>5%

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Politics·Trump

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

$15.7m Vol.
$1.9m Liq.
🔥$258k today
69
Ends in 7 months

95%

Kevin Warsh

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Politics·Fed Rates

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

$5.9m Vol.
$324k Liq.
🔥$221k today
8
Ends in 8 months

35%

3.75%

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Economy·Jerome Powell

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

$1.3m Vol.
$200k Liq.
🔥$173k today
17
Ends in 9 months

64%

↓ 3.25%

Fed rate cut by...?

Economy·Fed

Fed rate cut by...?

$1.2m Vol.
$177k Liq.
16
Ends in 3 months

64%

December Meeting

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Finance·Business

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

$74k Vol.
$20k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months

19%

Yes

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Politics·Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

$1.8m Vol.
$166k Liq.
37
Ends in about 1 month

2%

May 14

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Politics·Fed

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

$117k Vol.
$15k Liq.
8
Ends in 9 months

70%

December 31

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

Politics·Trump

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

$65k Vol.
$32k Liq.
1
Ends in about 2 months

3%

Yes

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Finance·Jerome Powell

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

$161k Vol.
$21k Liq.
7
Ends in 9 months

92%

4.5%

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

Finance·Jerome Powell

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

$245k Vol.
$19k Liq.
11
Ends in about 7 hours

4%

4.5%