Foreign Policy Predictions & Odds· 312 markets
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
$874k Vol.
$76k Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours
$874k Vol.$76k Liq.Ends in about 11 hours
28%
December 31
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
$1.6m Vol.
$30k Liq.
155
Ends in 3 months
$1.6m Vol.$30k Liq.155Ends in 3 months
24%
June 30, 2026
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$12k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$12k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
$29.5m Vol.
$389k Liq.
🔥$557k today
20,363
Ends in about 11 hours
$29.5m Vol.🔥$557k today$389k Liq.20,363Ends in about 11 hours
0%
Yes
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
$14.7m Vol.
$536k Liq.
🔥$359k today
71
Ends in 9 months
$14.7m Vol.🔥$359k today$536k Liq.71Ends in 9 months
10%
Yes
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
$10.6m Vol.
$3.9m Liq.
🔥$110k today
Ends in about 11 hours
$10.6m Vol.🔥$110k today$3.9m Liq.Ends in about 11 hours
0%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
$12.4m Vol.
$464k Liq.
🔥$87k today
5,424
Ends in 9 months
$12.4m Vol.🔥$87k today$464k Liq.5,424Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
$365k Vol.
$175k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$365k Vol.$175k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
59%
Pakistan
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$231k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$1.1m Vol.$231k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
3%
Yes
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
$31.0m Vol.
$287k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$31.0m Vol.$287k Liq.Ends in 9 months
9%
Yes
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?
$200k Vol.
$29k Liq.
6
Ends in about 1 month
$200k Vol.$29k Liq.6Ends in about 1 month
10%
April 10
Will Trump meet with Putin again by...?
$6.8m Vol.
$55k Liq.
251
Ends in about 11 hours
$6.8m Vol.$55k Liq.251Ends in about 11 hours
0%
Yes
Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?
$3.4m Vol.
$152k Liq.
132
Ends in about 11 hours
$3.4m Vol.$152k Liq.132Ends in about 11 hours
2%
India
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
$1.5m Vol.
$118k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$1.5m Vol.$118k Liq.Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$3.7m Vol.
$354k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$3.7m Vol.$354k Liq.Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
10%
June 30, 2026
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31?
$97k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours
$97k Vol.$16k Liq.Ends in about 11 hours
0%
Yes
US strike on Mexico by...?
$3.2m Vol.
$68k Liq.
161
Ends in 9 months
$3.2m Vol.$68k Liq.161Ends in 9 months
24%
December 31
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
$446k Vol.
$30k Liq.
28
Ends in 9 months
$446k Vol.$30k Liq.28Ends in 9 months
51%
Yes
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
$185k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$185k Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in 9 months
26%
Yes