North Atlantic Treaty Predictions & Odds· 106 markets
7%
Yes
3%
Yes
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
$152k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$152k Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in 9 months
9%
Yes
Politics · Geopolitics
NATO Article 5 by March 31?
$39k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in about 8 hours
$39k Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in about 8 hours
1%
Yes
17%
Yes
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?
$10k Vol.
$8k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$10k Vol.$8k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
9%
Yes
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$8k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$8k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Russian strike on a NATO member by...?
$1.7m Vol.
$10k Liq.
24
Ends in about 8 hours
$1.7m Vol.$10k Liq.24Ends in about 8 hours
1%
Yes
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$100k Vol.
$11k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$11k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
12%
Yes
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
$1.4m Vol.
$121k Liq.
31
Ends in 9 months
$1.4m Vol.$121k Liq.31Ends in 9 months
21%
December 31
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
$4k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$4k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in 9 months
18%
Yes
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
$89k Vol.
$13k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$89k Vol.$13k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
33%
Yes
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$129k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$129k Vol.$14k Liq.Ends in 3 months
16%
Yes
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$28k Vol.
$14k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$28k Vol.$14k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
41%
April 30
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
$69k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$69k Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in 9 months
21%
Yes
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
$6k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$6k Vol.$10k Liq.Ends in 9 months
10%
Yes
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...?
$82k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$82k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in 9 months
14%
December 31