Open Source Intel Predictions & Odds· 956 markets
How many times will the US strike Somalia in March?
$768k Vol.
$98k Liq.
🔥$81k today
Ends in 4 days
$768k Vol.🔥$81k today$98k Liq.Ends in 4 days
96%
6-9
US strike on Cuba by...?
$2.8m Vol.
$70k Liq.
🔥$51k today
49
Ends in 9 months
$2.8m Vol.🔥$51k today$70k Liq.49Ends in 9 months
38%
December 31
US strike on Mexico by...?
$3.2m Vol.
$69k Liq.
161
Ends in 9 months
$3.2m Vol.$69k Liq.161Ends in 9 months
24%
December 31
22%
December 31
24%
December 31
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$100k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
27%
Yes
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?
$13k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$13k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
2%
Yes
8%
Yes
46%
Yes
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
$241k Vol.
$8k Liq.
31
Ended
$241k Vol.$8k Liq.31Ended
44%
December 31, 2026
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
$45k Vol.
$6k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$45k Vol.$6k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
22%
Yes
Earthquakes · Science
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?
$42k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
$42k Vol.$20k Liq.Ends in 5 days
49%
1
39%
December 31, 2026
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
$7k Vol.
$3k Liq.
5
Ends in almost 2 years
$7k Vol.$3k Liq.5Ends in almost 2 years
78%
SpaceX
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
$57k Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in almost 2 years
$57k Vol.$3k Liq.1Ends in almost 2 years
96%
SpaceX
82%
December 31, 2026
22%
December 31, 2026
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
$102k Vol.
$6k Liq.
12
Ends in 9 months
$102k Vol.$6k Liq.12Ends in 9 months
47%
Head-mounted display