Outage Predictions & Odds· 386 markets
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?
$13k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours
$13k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in about 11 hours
3%
Yes
8%
Yes
Middle East · Iran Regime
Internet Access restored in Iran by...?
$100k Vol.
$14k Liq.
27
Ends in about 1 month
$100k Vol.$14k Liq.27Ends in about 1 month
17%
April 30
Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?
$345k Vol.
$25k Liq.
23
Ends in 3 months
$345k Vol.$25k Liq.23Ends in 3 months
75%
May 31
Critical Discord Incident by April 30?
$2k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$2k Vol.$9k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
20%
Yes
Will Claude go down on __ days in April?
$9k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$9k Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
43%
9-11
AWS service disrupted by April 30?
$730 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$730 Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
56%
Yes
Services Down Parlay
$13k Vol.
$2k Liq.
5
Ends in about 11 hours
$13k Vol.$2k Liq.5Ends in about 11 hours
4%
Yes
AWS service disrupted by March 31?
$13k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours
$13k Vol.$1k Liq.Ends in about 11 hours
4%
Yes
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on March 30?
$28k Vol.
$10 Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$28k Vol.$10 Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
49%
Up
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on March 30?
$7k Vol.
$325 Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$7k Vol.$325 Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
41%
Up
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on March 30?
$2k Vol.
$627 Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$2k Vol.$627 Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
77%
Up
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on March 30?
$1k Vol.
$128 Liq.
Ends in about 8 hours
$1k Vol.$128 Liq.Ends in about 8 hours
54%
Up
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on March 30?
$688 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in about 8 hours
$688 Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in about 8 hours
88%
Up
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on March 30?
$185 Vol.
$434 Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$185 Vol.$434 Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
62%
Up
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on March 30?
$69 Vol.
$268 Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$69 Vol.$268 Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
85%
Up
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on March 30?
$105 Vol.
$378 Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$105 Vol.$378 Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
76%
Up
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on March 30?
$40 Vol.
$33 Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$40 Vol.$33 Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
90%
Up
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on March 30?
$51 Vol.
$298 Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$51 Vol.$298 Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
78%
Up