Public Policy Predictions & Odds· 111 markets
Will Trump cut off trade with Spain?
$415k Vol.
$10k Liq.
25
Ends in about 5 hours
$415k Vol.$10k Liq.25Ends in about 5 hours
1%
Yes
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?
$212k Vol.
$15k Liq.
61
Ends in 3 months
$212k Vol.$15k Liq.61Ends in 3 months
8%
Yes
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
$1.6m Vol.
$27k Liq.
155
Ends in 3 months
$1.6m Vol.$27k Liq.155Ends in 3 months
24%
June 30, 2026
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
$874k Vol.
$76k Liq.
1
Ends in about 5 hours
$874k Vol.$76k Liq.1Ends in about 5 hours
29%
December 31
US announces military support of Kurds by...?
$483k Vol.
$10k Liq.
40
Ends in about 1 month
$483k Vol.$10k Liq.40Ends in about 1 month
16%
April 30
US announces military support of Iran opposition by...?
$233k Vol.
$14k Liq.
10
Ends in about 1 month
$233k Vol.$14k Liq.10Ends in about 1 month
8%
April 30
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$29k Vol.
$13k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$29k Vol.$13k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
42%
April 30
16%
Isfahan nuclear facility
45%
Yes
White House # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$52k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
$52k Vol.$11k Liq.Ends in 4 days
42%
160-179
White House # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?
$154k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in about 21 hours
$154k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in about 21 hours
71%
160-179
White House # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?
$6k Vol.
$33k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$6k Vol.$33k Liq.Ends in 8 days
38%
160-179
Zelenskyy # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$3k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
$3k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 4 days
41%
60-79
Zelenskyy # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?
$19k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in about 21 hours
$19k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in about 21 hours
83%
60-79
Zelenskyy # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?
$578 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$578 Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 8 days
51%
60-79
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
$14.0m Vol.
$442k Liq.
257
Ends in 3 months
$14.0m Vol.$442k Liq.257Ends in 3 months
44%
>$600M
What price will Plasma hit in 2026?
$291k Vol.
$2k Liq.
10
Ends in 9 months
$291k Vol.$2k Liq.10Ends in 9 months
51%
↑ 0.50
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
$37k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$37k Vol.$22k Liq.Ends in 9 months
8%
Yes