Public Policy Predictions & Odds· 111 markets
Will Trump cut off trade with Spain?
$415k Vol.
$9k Liq.
25
Ends in about 9 hours
$415k Vol.$9k Liq.25Ends in about 9 hours
1%
Yes
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?
$212k Vol.
$15k Liq.
61
Ends in 3 months
$212k Vol.$15k Liq.61Ends in 3 months
8%
Yes
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
$874k Vol.
$76k Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$874k Vol.$76k Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
28%
December 31
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
$1.6m Vol.
$30k Liq.
155
Ends in 3 months
$1.6m Vol.$30k Liq.155Ends in 3 months
24%
June 30, 2026
US announces military support of Kurds by...?
$482k Vol.
$10k Liq.
40
Ends in about 1 month
$482k Vol.$10k Liq.40Ends in about 1 month
21%
April 30
US announces military support of Iran opposition by...?
$232k Vol.
$16k Liq.
10
Ends in about 1 month
$232k Vol.$16k Liq.10Ends in about 1 month
8%
April 30
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$28k Vol.
$15k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$28k Vol.$15k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
41%
April 30
17%
Isfahan nuclear facility
45%
Yes
White House # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$52k Vol.
$32k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
$52k Vol.$32k Liq.Ends in 4 days
41%
160-179
White House # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?
$150k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
$150k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in 1 day
69%
160-179
83%
April 30
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
$14.0m Vol.
$442k Liq.
254
Ends in 3 months
$14.0m Vol.$442k Liq.254Ends in 3 months
43%
>$600M
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
$37k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$37k Vol.$22k Liq.Ends in 9 months
8%
Yes
Minneapolis Border Patrol Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?
$82k Vol.
$21k Liq.
8
Ends in about 9 hours
$82k Vol.$21k Liq.8Ends in about 9 hours
1%
Yes
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?
$55k Vol.
$18k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$55k Vol.$18k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
10%
Yes
83%
Pause–Pause–Pause
Crypto
Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top ___?
$7k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$7k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
86%
50