Secured Overnight Financing Rate Predictions & Odds· 101 markets

Will SOFR hit __ in March?

Will SOFR hit __ in March?

$6k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours

56%

↑3.72%

Bank of Canada decision in June?

Bank of Canada decision in June?

$721 Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 2 months

73%

No change

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

$2k Vol.
$135k Liq.
Ends in 4 months

75%

Pause–Pause–Pause

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

$715k Vol.
$106k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months

82%

Pause–Pause–Pause

Bank of Mexico Decision in June

Bank of Mexico Decision in June

$0 Vol.
$28 Liq.
Ends in 3 months

48%

Increase

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

$391k Vol.
$94k Liq.
20
Ends in 29 days

97%

Pause–Pause–Pause

QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on March 30?

QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on March 30?

$36 Vol.
$6 Liq.
Ends in 44 minutes

50%

Up

QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on March 31?

QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on March 31?

$0 Vol.
$323 Liq.
Ends in 1 day

50%

Up

Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on March 31?

Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on March 31?

$2 Vol.
$322 Liq.
Ends in 1 day

50%

Up

Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on March 31?

Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on March 31?

$2 Vol.
$341 Liq.
Ends in 1 day

50%

Up

Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on March 30?

Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on March 30?

$2 Vol.
$4 Liq.
Ends in 44 minutes

51%

Up

EWY (EWY) Up or Down on March 31?

EWY (EWY) Up or Down on March 31?

$0 Vol.
$328 Liq.
Ends in 1 day

43%

Up

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on March 31?

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on March 31?

$0 Vol.
$451 Liq.
Ends in 1 day

50%

Up

Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on March 30?

Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on March 30?

$295 Vol.
$676 Liq.
Ends in 44 minutes

3%

Up

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

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Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

$65k Vol.
$43k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

80%

Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%

Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on March 31?

Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on March 31?

$0 Vol.
$329 Liq.
Ends in 1 day

50%

Up

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on March 31?

NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on March 31?

$2 Vol.
$202 Liq.
Ends in 1 day

50%

Up

EWY (EWY) Up or Down on March 30?

EWY (EWY) Up or Down on March 30?

$28k Vol.
$7 Liq.
Ends in 44 minutes

49%

Up

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on March 30?

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on March 30?

$71 Vol.
$6 Liq.
Ends in 44 minutes

58%

Up

Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on March 31?

Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on March 31?

$0 Vol.
$227 Liq.
Ends in 1 day

50%

Up