Security Predictions & Odds· 725 markets

Will Biden declassify Russia security threat by Friday?

Will Biden declassify Russia security threat by Friday?

$17k Vol.
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2
Ended

Yes

Iran in possession of nuclear weapons by EoY?

$18k Vol.
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No

NATO article 5 by November 30?

NATO article 5 by November 30?

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No

Did Israeli intelligence have advanced knowledge of the Attack?

Israel · intelligence

Did Israeli intelligence have advanced knowledge of the Attack?

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290
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No

Will the Blast bridge be exploited by end of February?

Will the Blast bridge be exploited by end of February?

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13
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No

Will a nuclear weapon detonate by...?

Will a nuclear weapon detonate by...?

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30
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June 30, 2023

North Korea nuke by...?

North Korea nuke by...?

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4
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August 15

Kristi Noem out as Secretary of Homeland Security by…?

December 12

U.S. agrees to give Saudi Arabia security guarantee by...?

November 30

US x Saudi security agreement by November 30?

US x Saudi security agreement by November 30?

$185k Vol.
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65
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Yes

Elon Musk's security clearance revoked before July?

No

Who will Trump pick for Homeland Security Secretary?

Other

Israel x Syria security deal before September?

Israel x Syria security deal before September?

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151
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No

Who will Trump appoint as next National Security Advisor?

Other