Trade Deal Predictions & Odds· 106 markets
1
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?
$40k Vol.
$13k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
$40k Vol.$13k Liq.4Ends in 3 months
4%
Yes
T
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?
$30k Vol.
$19k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
$30k Vol.$19k Liq.4Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
W
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
$190k Vol.
$195k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$190k Vol.$195k Liq.Ends in 9 months
24%
Israel
W
Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?
$2k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$2k Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in 9 months
12%
Yes
U
US x Cuba economic deal by...?
$93k Vol.
$24k Liq.
15
Ends in 3 months
$93k Vol.$24k Liq.15Ends in 3 months
33%
June 30
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$77k Vol.
$21k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$77k Vol.$21k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
50%
Yes
W
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
$533k Vol.
$54k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$533k Vol.$54k Liq.Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
U
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$18k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$18k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
M
50%
Yes
W
What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by March 31?
$540k Vol.
$16k Liq.
🔥$119k today
173
$540k Vol.🔥$119k today$16k Liq.173
17%
Yes
I
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$432k Vol.
$41k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$432k Vol.$41k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
41%
June 30
U
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
$472k Vol.
$54k Liq.
65
Ends in 9 months
$472k Vol.$54k Liq.65Ends in 9 months
39%
Yes
W
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
$52k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$52k Vol.$13k Liq.Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
$385k Vol.
$68k Liq.
16
Ends in 9 months
$385k Vol.$68k Liq.16Ends in 9 months
17%
Yes
W
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
$329k Vol.
$21k Liq.
36
Ends in 3 months
$329k Vol.$21k Liq.36Ends in 3 months
48%
Yes
U
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
$964k Vol.
$22k Liq.
54
Ends in 3 months
$964k Vol.$22k Liq.54Ends in 3 months
27%
Yes
W
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$103k Vol.
$57k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$103k Vol.$57k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
54%
US x Iran Ceasefire
N
41%
Yes
W
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
$356k Vol.
$70k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$356k Vol.$70k Liq.Ends in 9 months
27%
Kuwait