Trade Deal Predictions & Odds· 106 markets
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?
$30k Vol.
$9k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
$30k Vol.$9k Liq.4Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?
$39k Vol.
$13k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
$39k Vol.$13k Liq.4Ends in 3 months
5%
Yes
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
$140k Vol.
$149k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$140k Vol.$149k Liq.Ends in 9 months
25%
India
Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?
$2k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$2k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 9 months
11%
Yes
US x Cuba economic deal by...?
$81k Vol.
$21k Liq.
15
Ends in 3 months
$81k Vol.$21k Liq.15Ends in 3 months
39%
June 30
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$63k Vol.
$14k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$63k Vol.$14k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
45%
Yes
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
$530k Vol.
$32k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$530k Vol.$32k Liq.Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$8k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$8k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
45%
Yes
22%
June 30
17%
Isfahan nuclear facility
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$388k Vol.
$39k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$388k Vol.$39k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
38%
June 30
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
$446k Vol.
$30k Liq.
28
Ends in 9 months
$446k Vol.$30k Liq.28Ends in 9 months
50%
Yes
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
$51k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$51k Vol.$13k Liq.Ends in 9 months
13%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
$384k Vol.
$31k Liq.
15
Ends in 9 months
$384k Vol.$31k Liq.15Ends in 9 months
17%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
$907k Vol.
$16k Liq.
24
Ends in 3 months
$907k Vol.$16k Liq.24Ends in 3 months
33%
Yes
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
$328k Vol.
$16k Liq.
36
Ends in 3 months
$328k Vol.$16k Liq.36Ends in 3 months
50%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?
$1.5m Vol.
$51k Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$1.5m Vol.$51k Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
0%
Yes
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$97k Vol.
$36k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$97k Vol.$36k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
50%
US x Iran Ceasefire
25%
Yes