Trade Deal Predictions & Odds· 134 markets
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?
$30k Vol.
$15k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
$30k Vol.$15k Liq.4Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?
$39k Vol.
$20k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
$39k Vol.$20k Liq.4Ends in 3 months
5%
Yes
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
$140k Vol.
$210k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$140k Vol.$210k Liq.Ends in 9 months
25%
India
Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?
$2k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$2k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 9 months
11%
Yes
US x Cuba economic deal by...?
$81k Vol.
$21k Liq.
15
Ends in 3 months
$81k Vol.$21k Liq.15Ends in 3 months
39%
June 30
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$62k Vol.
$15k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$62k Vol.$15k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
45%
Yes
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
$530k Vol.
$32k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$530k Vol.$32k Liq.Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$12k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$12k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
22%
June 30
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
$446k Vol.
$30k Liq.
28
Ends in 9 months
$446k Vol.$30k Liq.28Ends in 9 months
51%
Yes
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
$51k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$51k Vol.$13k Liq.Ends in 9 months
13%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
$384k Vol.
$50k Liq.
15
Ends in 9 months
$384k Vol.$50k Liq.15Ends in 9 months
17%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
$906k Vol.
$22k Liq.
24
Ends in 3 months
$906k Vol.$22k Liq.24Ends in 3 months
34%
Yes
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$97k Vol.
$34k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$97k Vol.$34k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
53%
US x Iran Ceasefire
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
$327k Vol.
$16k Liq.
36
Ends in 3 months
$327k Vol.$16k Liq.36Ends in 3 months
49%
Yes
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
$336k Vol.
$44k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$336k Vol.$44k Liq.Ends in 9 months
28%
Somaliland
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$240k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$1.1m Vol.$240k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
3%
Yes
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$129k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$129k Vol.$21k Liq.Ends in 3 months
16%
Yes
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with in 2025?
$877k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
$877k Vol.$0 Liq.Ended
Australia
Which countries will the U.S. agree to tariff agreements with by December 31?
$24k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
$24k Vol.$0 Liq.Ended
Israel