Trade Deal Predictions & Odds· 106 markets
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?
$39k Vol.
$23k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
$39k Vol.$23k Liq.4Ends in 3 months
5%
Yes
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?
$30k Vol.
$13k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
$30k Vol.$13k Liq.4Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
$158k Vol.
$227k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$158k Vol.$227k Liq.Ends in 9 months
25%
India
Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?
$2k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$2k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in 9 months
11%
Yes
US x Cuba economic deal by...?
$81k Vol.
$28k Liq.
15
Ends in 3 months
$81k Vol.$28k Liq.15Ends in 3 months
38%
June 30
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$63k Vol.
$19k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$63k Vol.$19k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
45%
Yes
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
$530k Vol.
$43k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$530k Vol.$43k Liq.Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$13k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$13k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
13%
Yes
45%
Yes
21%
June 30
17%
Isfahan nuclear facility
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$388k Vol.
$45k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$388k Vol.$45k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
39%
June 30
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
$447k Vol.
$31k Liq.
28
Ends in 9 months
$447k Vol.$31k Liq.28Ends in 9 months
49%
Yes
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
$51k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$51k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in 9 months
13%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
$384k Vol.
$43k Liq.
15
Ends in 9 months
$384k Vol.$43k Liq.15Ends in 9 months
17%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
$908k Vol.
$18k Liq.
25
Ends in 3 months
$908k Vol.$18k Liq.25Ends in 3 months
30%
Yes
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
$328k Vol.
$21k Liq.
36
Ends in 3 months
$328k Vol.$21k Liq.36Ends in 3 months
50%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?
$1.5m Vol.
$51k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$1.5m Vol.$51k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
1%
Yes
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$97k Vol.
$45k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$97k Vol.$45k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
50%
US x Iran Ceasefire
25%
Yes