Artificial General Intelligence 预测与赔率· 101 个市场

O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

$45k 交易量
$6k 流动性
10
9 个月后结束

19%

Yes

A
AI bubble burst by...?

AI bubble burst by...?

$2.5m 交易量
$13k 流动性
102
9 个月后结束

20%

Yes

U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

$73k 交易量
$9k 流动性
7
9 个月后结束

45%

Yes

O
OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

$3k 交易量
$845 流动性
1
3 个月后结束

50%

Yes

W
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?

$71k 交易量
$18k 流动性
3 个月后结束

10%

Yes

G
GPT-5.5 released by...?

GPT-5.5 released by...?

$301k 交易量
$23k 流动性
4

93%

June 30

C
ChatGPT Full Outage by April 10?

ChatGPT Full Outage by April 10?

$894 交易量
$5k 流动性
8 天后结束

6%

Yes

A
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

$27k 交易量
$5k 流动性
5
9 个月后结束

32%

Yes

O
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

$102k 交易量
$9k 流动性
2
3 个月后结束

6%

Yes

W
Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

$2k 交易量
$6k 流动性
3
9 个月后结束

10%

Yes

G
GPT-6 released by…?

GPT-6 released by…?

$216k 交易量
$22k 流动性
40
已结束

83%

December 31, 2026

A
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

$3k 交易量
$657 流动性
9 个月后结束

58%

Yes

C
Claude Mythos released by…?

Claude Mythos released by…?

$63k 交易量
$16k 流动性
1
28 天后结束

57%

June 30

B
Big AI out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?

Big AI out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?

$19k 交易量
$6k 流动性
13 天后结束

85%

April 15

W
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

$1.4m 交易量
$59k 流动性
24
3 个月后结束

28%

OpenAI

C
ChatGPT Outage by...?

ChatGPT Outage by...?

$29k 交易量
$6k 流动性
15 天后结束

66%

April 17

W
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?

$46k 交易量
$14k 流动性
3
28 天后结束

16%

Yes

W
Which company has the best AI model end of April?

Which company has the best AI model end of April?

$3.1m 交易量
$592k 流动性
🔥$244k 今日
28 天后结束

95%

Anthropic

W
Which company has second best AI model end of June?

Which company has second best AI model end of June?

$335k 交易量
$110k 流动性
53
3 个月后结束

51%

Anthropic

W
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

$926k 交易量
$175k 流动性
24
3 个月后结束

51%

Anthropic