Climate Weather Predictions & Odds· 231 markets
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
$36k Vol.
$5k Liq.
4
Ends in 2 months
$36k Vol.$5k Liq.4Ends in 2 months
7%
Yes
Precipitation in Seattle in March?
$320k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in about 15 hours
$320k Vol.$13k Liq.Ends in about 15 hours
94%
5-6"
Precipitation in NYC in March?
$172k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in about 15 hours
$172k Vol.$11k Liq.Ends in about 15 hours
90%
3-4"
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
$7.5m Vol.
$32k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$7.5m Vol.$32k Liq.Ends in 9 months
98%
↑2k
Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?
$385k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in about 15 hours
$385k Vol.$22k Liq.Ends in about 15 hours
1%
1600
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$32k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$1.1m Vol.$32k Liq.Ends in 9 months
28%
11–13
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
$666k Vol.
$21k Liq.
9
Ends in about 1 year
$666k Vol.$21k Liq.9Ends in about 1 year
43%
1
Precipitation in Seoul in March?
$32k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in about 15 hours
$32k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in about 15 hours
52%
40-45mm
March 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
$208k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in 11 days
$208k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in 11 days
42%
1.25–1.29ºC
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?
$1.7m Vol.
$75k Liq.
21
Ends in 3 months
$1.7m Vol.$75k Liq.21Ends in 3 months
63%
8+
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$168k Vol.
$12k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$168k Vol.$12k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
13%
Yes
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
$2.4m Vol.
$121k Liq.
19
Ends in 9 months
$2.4m Vol.$121k Liq.19Ends in 9 months
46%
2
How many Tornadoes in the US in March?
$158k Vol.
$26k Liq.
Ends in 11 days
$158k Vol.$26k Liq.Ends in 11 days
100%
150+
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$113k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$113k Vol.$13k Liq.Ends in 9 months
13%
Yes
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$309k Vol.
$8k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$309k Vol.$8k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
39%
Yes
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
$108k Vol.
$5k Liq.
5
Ends in 10 months
$108k Vol.$5k Liq.5Ends in 10 months
73%
Yes
Weather · climate
Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?
$34k Vol.
$15k Liq.
2
Ends in 1 day
$34k Vol.$15k Liq.2Ends in 1 day
95%
14.2-14.4m sq km
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
$11k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
$11k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 2 months
8%
Yes
2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
$270k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in 11 days
$270k Vol.$21k Liq.Ends in 11 days
98%
4th or lower
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$523k Vol.
$27k Liq.
26
Ends in 9 months
$523k Vol.$27k Liq.26Ends in 9 months
5%
Yes