Department Of Defense Predictions & Odds· 113 markets
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
$134k Vol.
$17k Liq.
7
Ends in about 4 hours
$134k Vol.$17k Liq.7Ends in about 4 hours
75%
December 31
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
$45k Vol.
$9k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$45k Vol.$9k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
17%
Yes
43%
Yes
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$139k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$139k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
$102k Vol.
$11k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$102k Vol.$11k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
5%
Yes
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
$1.5m Vol.
$19k Liq.
78
Ends in 3 months
$1.5m Vol.$19k Liq.78Ends in 3 months
14%
June 30
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?
$284k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in about 4 hours
$284k Vol.$10k Liq.Ends in about 4 hours
0%
Yes
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$29k Vol.
$13k Liq.
4
Ends in about 1 month
$29k Vol.$13k Liq.4Ends in about 1 month
35%
April 30
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
$6k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$6k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in 3 months
27%
Yes
13%
Isfahan nuclear facility
Anyone charged for doxing Delta Force commander heading Maduro grab by March 31?
$3k Vol.
$496 Liq.
2
Ends in about 4 hours
$3k Vol.$496 Liq.2Ends in about 4 hours
2%
Yes
44%
Yes
Will Trump end Department of Education before 2027?
$9k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$9k Vol.$12k Liq.Ends in 9 months
5%
Yes
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$129k Vol.
$14k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$129k Vol.$14k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
16%
Yes
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
$14.0m Vol.
$432k Liq.
257
Ends in 3 months
$14.0m Vol.$432k Liq.257Ends in 3 months
44%
>$600M
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?
$26k Vol.
$19k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$26k Vol.$19k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
5%
Yes
43%
↓ 39000
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$100k Vol.
$11k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$11k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
12%
Yes