Department Of Defense Predictions & Odds· 150 markets
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
$134k Vol.
$20k Liq.
7
Ends in about 6 hours
$134k Vol.$20k Liq.7Ends in about 6 hours
73%
December 31
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
$45k Vol.
$10k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$45k Vol.$10k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
17%
Yes
43%
Yes
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$139k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$139k Vol.$11k Liq.Ends in 9 months
18%
Yes
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
$102k Vol.
$12k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$102k Vol.$12k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
5%
Yes
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
$1.5m Vol.
$20k Liq.
78
Ends in 3 months
$1.5m Vol.$20k Liq.78Ends in 3 months
14%
June 30
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?
$284k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in about 6 hours
$284k Vol.$11k Liq.Ends in about 6 hours
0%
Yes
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$29k Vol.
$13k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$29k Vol.$13k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
42%
April 30
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
$6k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$6k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in 3 months
27%
Yes
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?
$51k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$51k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
8%
Yes
16%
Isfahan nuclear facility
Anyone charged for doxing Delta Force commander heading Maduro grab by March 31?
$3k Vol.
$753 Liq.
2
Ends in about 6 hours
$3k Vol.$753 Liq.2Ends in about 6 hours
2%
Yes
Trump renames Department of Defense by September 30?
$236k Vol.
$0 Liq.
271
Ended
$236k Vol.$0 Liq.271Ended
Yes
Confederate Memorial at Arlington Cemetery removed by Jan 1?
$9k Vol.
$0 Liq.
4
Ended
$9k Vol.$0 Liq.4Ended
Yes
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?
$2.3m Vol.
$0 Liq.
203
Ends in about 6 hours
$2.3m Vol.$0 Liq.203Ends in about 6 hours
Yes
