Department Of War Predictions & Odds· 107 markets
W
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
$46k Vol.
$20k Liq.
3
Ends in 27 days
$46k Vol.$20k Liq.3Ends in 27 days
16%
Yes
1
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
$102k Vol.
$12k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$102k Vol.$12k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
4%
Yes
M
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$140k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$140k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
5
37%
Yes
1
7%
Yes
U
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
$1.5m Vol.
$19k Liq.
79
Ends in 3 months
$1.5m Vol.$19k Liq.79Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
U
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$18k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$18k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
W
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
$5.2m Vol.
$238k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$5.2m Vol.$238k Liq.Ends in 9 months
7%
December 31
W
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$50k Vol.
$9k Liq.
14
Ends in 27 days
$50k Vol.$9k Liq.14Ends in 27 days
17%
Yes
W
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?
$1.2m Vol.
$37k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$1.2m Vol.$37k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
1%
Yes
R
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3?
$6k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$6k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
13%
Yes
R
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?
$15k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ended
$15k Vol.$6k Liq.Ended
4%
Yes
R
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?
$32k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ended
$32k Vol.$8k Liq.Ended
2%
Yes
P
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
$9k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$9k Vol.$9k Liq.Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
P
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?
$74k Vol.
$36k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$74k Vol.$36k Liq.Ends in 27 days
3%
Yes
U
9%
April 30
G
Gulf State military action against Iran by...?
$78k Vol.
$35k Liq.
2
Ends in 27 days
$78k Vol.$35k Liq.2Ends in 27 days
19%
April 30
I
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$12.0m Vol.
$1.0m Liq.
🔥$1.4m today
380
Ended
$12.0m Vol.🔥$1.4m today$1.0m Liq.380Ended
86%
December 31
W
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$103k Vol.
$50k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$103k Vol.$50k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
54%
US x Iran Ceasefire