Engagement Predictions & Odds· 134 markets
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?
$462k Vol.
$18k Liq.
10
Ends in 3 months
$462k Vol.$18k Liq.10Ends in 3 months
6%
Yes
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$64.2m Vol.
$1.4m Liq.
🔥$3.2m today
1,263
$64.2m Vol.🔥$3.2m today$1.4m Liq.1,263
72%
December 31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
$29.5m Vol.
$389k Liq.
🔥$557k today
20,364
Ends in about 4 hours
$29.5m Vol.🔥$557k today$389k Liq.20,364Ends in about 4 hours
0%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
$12.4m Vol.
$475k Liq.
🔥$73k today
5,427
Ends in 9 months
$12.4m Vol.🔥$73k today$475k Liq.5,427Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$224k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$1.1m Vol.$224k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
3%
Yes
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
$1.5m Vol.
$82k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$1.5m Vol.$82k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$56k Vol.
$8k Liq.
7
Ends in 3 months
$56k Vol.$8k Liq.7Ends in 3 months
28%
Yes
Republican 2026 House odds hit___ by March 31?
$293k Vol.
$97k Liq.
Ends in about 4 hours
$293k Vol.$97k Liq.Ends in about 4 hours
2%
↓ 10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$3.7m Vol.
$324k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$3.7m Vol.$324k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$64k Vol.
$11k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$64k Vol.$11k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
42%
Yes
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$388k Vol.
$42k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$388k Vol.$42k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
39%
June 30
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
$1.4m Vol.
$121k Liq.
32
Ends in 9 months
$1.4m Vol.$121k Liq.32Ends in 9 months
20%
December 31
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
$515k Vol.
$57k Liq.
31
Ends in 9 months
$515k Vol.$57k Liq.31Ends in 9 months
16%
Yes
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
$196k Vol.
$56k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$196k Vol.$56k Liq.Ends in 9 months
22%
Yes
Middle East · Iran Regime
Internet Access restored in Iran by...?
$102k Vol.
$13k Liq.
27
Ends in about 1 month
$102k Vol.$13k Liq.27Ends in about 1 month
20%
April 30
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
$60k Vol.
$17k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$60k Vol.$17k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
42%
Yes
US x China Military clash before 2027?
$53k Vol.
$20k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months
$53k Vol.$20k Liq.4Ends in 9 months
7%
Yes
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$97k Vol.
$30k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$97k Vol.$30k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
47%
US x Iran Ceasefire
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
$29k Vol.
$13k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$29k Vol.$13k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
38%
Leadership Change
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31?
$126k Vol.
$9k Liq.
26
Ends in about 4 hours
$126k Vol.$9k Liq.26Ends in about 4 hours
1%
Yes