Humanitarian Aid Predictions & Odds· 124 markets
U
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$81.4m Vol.
$2.5m Liq.
🔥$7.5m today
1,411
$81.4m Vol.🔥$7.5m today$2.5m Liq.1,411
73%
December 31
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.9m Vol.
$452k Liq.
🔥$474k today
Ends in 27 days
$1.9m Vol.🔥$474k today$452k Liq.Ends in 27 days
2%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$4.4m Vol.
$496k Liq.
🔥$261k today
Ends in 3 months
$4.4m Vol.🔥$261k today$496k Liq.Ends in 3 months
10%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
$12.4m Vol.
$490k Liq.
🔥$74k today
5,430
Ends in 9 months
$12.4m Vol.🔥$74k today$490k Liq.5,430Ends in 9 months
30%
Yes
I
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$432k Vol.
$35k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$432k Vol.$35k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
41%
June 30
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$96k Vol.
$21k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$96k Vol.$21k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
27%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
$14k Vol.
$232k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$14k Vol.$232k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
5%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?
$3k Vol.
$94k Liq.
Ends in about 1 year
$3k Vol.$94k Liq.Ends in about 1 year
39%
Yes
W
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$103k Vol.
$57k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$103k Vol.$57k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
54%
US x Iran Ceasefire
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
$3k Vol.
$120k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
$3k Vol.$120k Liq.Ends in over 1 year
52%
Yes
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$75k Vol.
$22k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$75k Vol.$22k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
53%
Yes
P
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by...?
$134k Vol.
$12k Liq.
27
Ends in 3 months
$134k Vol.$12k Liq.27Ends in 3 months
34%
Yes
I
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
$31k Vol.
$9k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$31k Vol.$9k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
22%
Leadership Change
U
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
$188k Vol.
$26k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$188k Vol.$26k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
25%
Yes
F
31%
June 30
U
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
$70k Vol.
$31k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$70k Vol.$31k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
8%
Yes
S
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
$61k Vol.
$13k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$61k Vol.$13k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
32%
December 31, 2026
M
51%
Yes
