Humanitarian Pause Predictions & Odds· 119 markets
U
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$83.8m Vol.
$2.5m Liq.
🔥$3.4m today
1,423
$83.8m Vol.🔥$3.4m today$2.5m Liq.1,423
71%
December 31
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$106k Vol.
$24k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$106k Vol.$24k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
20%
Yes
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$80k Vol.
$13k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
$80k Vol.$13k Liq.4Ends in 3 months
45%
Yes
I
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$433k Vol.
$48k Liq.
7
Ends in 3 months
$433k Vol.$48k Liq.7Ends in 3 months
41%
June 30
W
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$104k Vol.
$53k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$104k Vol.$53k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
53%
US x Iran Ceasefire
I
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
$31k Vol.
$7k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$31k Vol.$7k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
23%
Leadership Change
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$4.4m Vol.
$499k Liq.
🔥$123k today
Ends in 3 months
$4.4m Vol.🔥$123k today$499k Liq.Ends in 3 months
9%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
$12.4m Vol.
$490k Liq.
🔥$74k today
5,430
Ends in 9 months
$12.4m Vol.🔥$74k today$490k Liq.5,430Ends in 9 months
30%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.9m Vol.
$348k Liq.
🔥$65k today
Ends in 27 days
$1.9m Vol.🔥$65k today$348k Liq.Ends in 27 days
2%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
$18k Vol.
$135k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$18k Vol.$135k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
5%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?
$4k Vol.
$110k Liq.
Ends in about 1 year
$4k Vol.$110k Liq.Ends in about 1 year
39%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
$4k Vol.
$130k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
$4k Vol.$130k Liq.Ends in over 1 year
54%
Yes
U
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
$189k Vol.
$25k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$189k Vol.$25k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
27%
Yes
P
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by...?
$134k Vol.
$8k Liq.
27
Ends in 3 months
$134k Vol.$8k Liq.27Ends in 3 months
31%
Yes
S
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
$61k Vol.
$9k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$61k Vol.$9k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
31%
December 31, 2026
U
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
$70k Vol.
$27k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$70k Vol.$27k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
8%
Yes
Q
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
$24k Vol.
$47k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$24k Vol.$47k Liq.Ends in 27 days
7%
Yes
A
3%
Yes
T
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by...?
$7k Vol.
$862 Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$7k Vol.$862 Liq.1Ends in 9 months
65%
December 31, 2026