Independence Predictions & Odds· 112 markets
Kurds declare independence from Iran?
$108k Vol.
$26k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$108k Vol.$26k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?
$13k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$13k Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
$21k Vol.
$12k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$21k Vol.$12k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
11%
Yes
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
$18k Vol.
$31k Liq.
8
Ends in 9 months
$18k Vol.$31k Liq.8Ends in 9 months
8%
Yes
KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?
$31k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$31k Vol.$22k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
3%
Yes
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
$530k Vol.
$33k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$530k Vol.$33k Liq.Ends in 9 months
20%
Yes
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
$123k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$123k Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in 9 months
44%
Yes
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
$51k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$51k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
Politics
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?
$20k Vol.
$10k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$20k Vol.$10k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
4%
Yes
Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
$213k Vol.
$125k Liq.
13
Ends in 2 months
$213k Vol.$125k Liq.13Ends in 2 months
14%
Lebanese Forces (LF)
47%
Yes
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$28k Vol.
$12k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$28k Vol.$12k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
44%
April 30
17%
Isfahan nuclear facility
What will Dow Jones (DJIA) hit in March?
$884 Vol.
$835 Liq.
Ends in 2 days
$884 Vol.$835 Liq.Ends in 2 days
47%
↓ 42600
Geopolitics · Politics
US recognize Somaliland by...?
$11k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$11k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
20%
Yes
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
$14.0m Vol.
$432k Liq.
255
Ends in 3 months
$14.0m Vol.$432k Liq.255Ends in 3 months
44%
>$600M
ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?
$312k Vol.
$11k Liq.
27
Ends in about 15 hours
$312k Vol.$11k Liq.27Ends in about 15 hours
0%
Yes
What will Apple (AAPL) hit in April 2026?
$1k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$1k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
91%
↓ $248
Will any European country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?
$44k Vol.
$17k Liq.
2
Ends in about 15 hours
$44k Vol.$17k Liq.2Ends in about 15 hours
0%
Yes