Independence Predictions & Odds· 151 markets
Kurds declare independence from Iran?
$108k Vol.
$15k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$108k Vol.$15k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?
$13k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$13k Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
$21k Vol.
$11k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$21k Vol.$11k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
11%
Yes
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
$18k Vol.
$36k Liq.
8
Ends in 9 months
$18k Vol.$36k Liq.8Ends in 9 months
8%
Yes
KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?
$31k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$31k Vol.$21k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
3%
Yes
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
$530k Vol.
$42k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$530k Vol.$42k Liq.Ends in 9 months
20%
Yes
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
$123k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$123k Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in 9 months
44%
Yes
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
$51k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$51k Vol.$18k Liq.Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
Politics
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?
$20k Vol.
$10k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$20k Vol.$10k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
5%
Yes
Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
$213k Vol.
$122k Liq.
13
Ends in 2 months
$213k Vol.$122k Liq.13Ends in 2 months
14%
Lebanese Forces (LF)
Up
How late will Trump be to the Greek Independence Day event?
$53k Vol.
$0 Liq.
1
Ended
$53k Vol.$0 Liq.1Ended
20 - 25 minutes
What will Trump say during Greek Independence Day event on March 26?
$70k Vol.
$0 Liq.
10
Ended
$70k Vol.$0 Liq.10Ended
Greek / Greece / Hellenic 20+ times
No
What will Trump say during his Independence Day remarks on July 4?
$1.0m Vol.
$0 Liq.
338
Ended
$1.0m Vol.$0 Liq.338Ended
America / American 35+
Another MP leaves Conservative Party of Canada by December 31?
$13k Vol.
$0 Liq.
2
Ended
$13k Vol.$0 Liq.2Ended
Yes