Intelligence Predictions & Odds· 156 markets
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?
$4k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 19 days
$4k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in 19 days
67%
Yes
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
$45k Vol.
$6k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$45k Vol.$6k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
22%
Yes
US forces enter Iran by..?
$54.7m Vol.
$1.1m Liq.
🔥$7.5m today
5,148
$54.7m Vol.🔥$7.5m today$1.1m Liq.5,148
77%
December 31
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
$2.5m Vol.
$160k Liq.
🔥$112k today
Ends in 9 months
$2.5m Vol.🔥$112k today$160k Liq.Ends in 9 months
58%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
How many times will the US strike Somalia in March?
$771k Vol.
$47k Liq.
🔥$80k today
Ends in 4 days
$771k Vol.🔥$80k today$47k Liq.Ends in 4 days
97%
6-9
39%
December 31
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
$138k Vol.
$27k Liq.
19
Ends in 3 months
$138k Vol.$27k Liq.19Ends in 3 months
66%
Yes
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
$238k Vol.
$42k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$238k Vol.$42k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
21%
April 30
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?
$109k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in about 6 hours
$109k Vol.$12k Liq.Ends in about 6 hours
2%
Yes
US announces military support of Kurds by...?
$483k Vol.
$11k Liq.
40
Ends in about 1 month
$483k Vol.$11k Liq.40Ends in about 1 month
17%
April 30
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15?
$9k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 15 days
$9k Vol.$10k Liq.Ends in 15 days
32%
Yes
26%
June 30
US strike on Mexico by...?
$3.2m Vol.
$49k Liq.
161
Ends in 9 months
$3.2m Vol.$49k Liq.161Ends in 9 months
25%
December 31
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
$45k Vol.
$10k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$45k Vol.$10k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
17%
Yes
22%
December 31
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by...?
$1.4m Vol.
$38k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$1.4m Vol.$38k Liq.Ends in 3 months
28%
June 30
US announces military support of Iran opposition by...?
$233k Vol.
$14k Liq.
10
Ends in about 1 month
$233k Vol.$14k Liq.10Ends in about 1 month
8%
April 30
24%
December 31
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
$52k Vol.
$41k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$52k Vol.$41k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
57%
June 30
