Jerome Powell Predictions & Odds· 127 markets
J
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$1.9m Vol.
$35k Liq.
36
Ends in about 1 month
$1.9m Vol.$35k Liq.36Ends in about 1 month
1%
Yes
J
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
$118k Vol.
$24k Liq.
8
Ends in 9 months
$118k Vol.$24k Liq.8Ends in 9 months
72%
December 31
T
Trump · Fed Rates
Trump drops Powell investigation by…?
$4k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$4k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 3 months
59%
June 30
J
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?
$243k Vol.
$22k Liq.
33
Ends in 3 months
$243k Vol.$22k Liq.33Ends in 3 months
2%
Yes
N
100%
Yes
W
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$16.9m Vol.
$1.5m Liq.
🔥$856k today
73
Ends in 7 months
$16.9m Vol.🔥$856k today$1.5m Liq.73Ends in 7 months
96%
Kevin Warsh
F
Fed decision in April?
$43.7m Vol.
$4.5m Liq.
🔥$3.3m today
36
Ends in 27 days
$43.7m Vol.🔥$3.3m today$4.5m Liq.36Ends in 27 days
98%
No change
H
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$15.3m Vol.
$1.1m Liq.
🔥$315k today
63
Ends in 9 months
$15.3m Vol.🔥$315k today$1.1m Liq.63Ends in 9 months
31%
0 (0 bps)
F
Fed Decision in June?
$5.2m Vol.
$957k Liq.
🔥$295k today
20
Ends in 3 months
$5.2m Vol.🔥$295k today$957k Liq.20Ends in 3 months
89%
No change
W
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$6.0m Vol.
$297k Liq.
🔥$65k today
8
Ends in 8 months
$6.0m Vol.🔥$65k today$297k Liq.8Ends in 8 months
30%
3.75%
F
Fed Decision in July?
$3.2m Vol.
$295k Liq.
🔥$58k today
Ends in 4 months
$3.2m Vol.🔥$58k today$295k Liq.Ends in 4 months
77%
No change
F
17%
Yes
F
64%
December Meeting
H
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
$166k Vol.
$30k Liq.
10
Ends in 9 months
$166k Vol.$30k Liq.10Ends in 9 months
88%
4.5%
F
17%
October Meeting
W
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$1.3m Vol.
$218k Liq.
20
Ends in 9 months
$1.3m Vol.$218k Liq.20Ends in 9 months
78%
↓ 3.25%
F
98%
Pause–Pause–Pause
F
83%
Pause–Pause–Pause
H
How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?
$10k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$10k Vol.$20k Liq.Ends in 27 days
44%
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