Jerome Powell Predictions & Odds· 136 markets
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$1.8m Vol.
$167k Liq.
36
Ends in about 1 month
$1.8m Vol.$167k Liq.36Ends in about 1 month
2%
May 14
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition
$145k Vol.
$12k Liq.
2
Ends in about 18 hours
$145k Vol.$12k Liq.2Ends in about 18 hours
100%
Yes
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?
$234k Vol.
$30k Liq.
33
Ends in 3 months
$234k Vol.$30k Liq.33Ends in 3 months
3%
Yes
Will Trump try to Fire Powell by March 31?
$48k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in about 18 hours
$48k Vol.$15k Liq.Ends in about 18 hours
0%
Yes
Trump · Fed Rates
Trump drops Powell investigation by…?
$4k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$4k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 3 months
60%
June 30
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
$117k Vol.
$20k Liq.
8
Ends in 9 months
$117k Vol.$20k Liq.8Ends in 9 months
71%
December 31
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$15.6m Vol.
$1.8m Liq.
🔥$516k today
70
Ends in 7 months
$15.6m Vol.🔥$516k today$1.8m Liq.70Ends in 7 months
95%
Kevin Warsh
Fed decision in April?
$37.6m Vol.
$4.0m Liq.
🔥$1.7m today
18
Ends in 30 days
$37.6m Vol.🔥$1.7m today$4.0m Liq.18Ends in 30 days
97%
No change
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$5.8m Vol.
$364k Liq.
🔥$523k today
5
Ends in 8 months
$5.8m Vol.🔥$523k today$364k Liq.5Ends in 8 months
34%
3.75%
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$1.3m Vol.
$248k Liq.
🔥$440k today
15
Ends in 9 months
$1.3m Vol.🔥$440k today$248k Liq.15Ends in 9 months
64%
↓ 3.25%
Fed Decision in June?
$4.5m Vol.
$879k Liq.
🔥$287k today
11
Ends in 3 months
$4.5m Vol.🔥$287k today$879k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
87%
No change
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$14.6m Vol.
$1.2m Liq.
🔥$276k today
54
Ends in 9 months
$14.6m Vol.🔥$276k today$1.2m Liq.54Ends in 9 months
39%
0 (0 bps)
Fed Decision in July?
$2.2m Vol.
$277k Liq.
🔥$163k today
Ends in 4 months
$2.2m Vol.🔥$163k today$277k Liq.Ends in 4 months
78%
No change
23%
Yes
63%
December Meeting
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?
$238k Vol.
$16k Liq.
11
Ends in about 18 hours
$238k Vol.$16k Liq.11Ends in about 18 hours
12%
4.5%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
$153k Vol.
$18k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$153k Vol.$18k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
85%
4.5%
82%
Pause–Pause–Pause
97%
Pause–Pause–Pause
How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?
$10k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in 30 days
$10k Vol.$21k Liq.Ends in 30 days
46%
2