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Jerome Powell Predictions & Odds· 138 markets

AllPoliticsBusinessFinanceTrumpFedCultureUS PoliticsMAGACourtsFed RatesEconomyFOMCMacro SingleParlaysJerome PowellEconomic PolicyMacro IndicatorsTreasuriesKevin WarshJudy Shelton
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Politics·Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

$1.9m Vol.
$139k Liq.
37
Ends in about 1 month

1%

May 14

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

Politics·Trump

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

$243k Vol.
$22k Liq.
33
Ends in 3 months

3%

Yes

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Politics·Fed

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

$117k Vol.
$16k Liq.
8
Ends in 9 months

70%

December 31

Trump drops Powell investigation by…?

Trump · Fed Rates

Trump drops Powell investigation by…?

$4k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

63%

June 30

Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition

Culture·Fed

Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition

$145k Vol.
$12k Liq.
2
Ended

100%

Yes

Will Trump try to Fire Powell by March 31?

Politics·Trump

Will Trump try to Fire Powell by March 31?

$48k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ended

0%

Yes

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Politics·Trump

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

$15.8m Vol.
$1.6m Liq.
🔥$247k today
72
Ends in 7 months

95%

Kevin Warsh

Fed decision in April?

Economy·Economic Policy

Fed decision in April?

$39.7m Vol.
$3.8m Liq.
🔥$2.5m today
26
Ends in 29 days

98%

No change

Fed Decision in July?

Economy·fomc

Fed Decision in July?

$3.0m Vol.
$263k Liq.
🔥$781k today
1
Ends in 4 months

77%

No change

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Economy·Business

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$14.8m Vol.
$1.2m Liq.
🔥$276k today
59
Ends in 9 months

37%

0 (0 bps)

Fed Decision in June?

Politics·Economic Policy

Fed Decision in June?

$4.8m Vol.
$806k Liq.
🔥$251k today
14
Ends in 3 months

89%

No change

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Politics·Fed Rates

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

$5.9m Vol.
$305k Liq.
🔥$150k today
8
Ends in 8 months

26%

3.5%

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Economy·Fed

Fed rate hike in 2026?

$740k Vol.
$48k Liq.
🔥$80k today
28
Ends in 8 months

18%

Yes

Fed rate cut by...?

Economy·Fed

Fed rate cut by...?

$1.2m Vol.
$182k Liq.
17
Ends in 3 months

64%

December Meeting

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

Finance·Jerome Powell

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

$247k Vol.
$22k Liq.
12
Ended

3%

4.5%

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Finance·Jerome Powell

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

$161k Vol.
$32k Liq.
10
Ends in 9 months

92%

4.5%

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Economy·Jerome Powell

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

$1.3m Vol.
$191k Liq.
18
Ends in 9 months

63%

↓ 3.25%

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Economy·Fed

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

$715k Vol.
$115k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months

82%

Pause–Pause–Pause

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Economy·Economic Policy

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

$392k Vol.
$98k Liq.
23
Ends in 29 days

97%

Pause–Pause–Pause

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Economy·Fed

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

$2k Vol.
$136k Liq.
Ends in 4 months

75%

Pause–Pause–Pause