Leadership Changes Predictions & Odds· 103 markets
34%
Yes
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$9.2m Vol.
$393k Liq.
🔥$639k today
209
Ends in 1 day
$9.2m Vol.🔥$639k today$393k Liq.209Ends in 1 day
45%
June 30
Iran leadership change by...?
$5.2m Vol.
$211k Liq.
🔥$121k today
885
Ends in 9 months
$5.2m Vol.🔥$121k today$211k Liq.885Ends in 9 months
53%
December 31
Geopolitics · World
Next leader out of power before 2027?
$3.4m Vol.
$519k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$3.4m Vol.$519k Liq.Ends in 9 months
60%
Orbán - Hungary PM
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain?
$115k Vol.
$11k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$115k Vol.$11k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
13%
Yes
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$28k Vol.
$18k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$28k Vol.$18k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
41%
April 30
Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
$670 Vol.
$29k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$670 Vol.$29k Liq.Ends in 9 months
25%
September 30
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
$28k Vol.
$12k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$28k Vol.$12k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
34%
Leadership Change
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by March 31, 2026?
$135k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours
$135k Vol.$9k Liq.Ends in about 11 hours
0%
Yes
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
$116k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$116k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by March 31?
$198k Vol.
$8k Liq.
6
Ends in about 11 hours
$198k Vol.$8k Liq.6Ends in about 11 hours
1%
Yes
Geopolitics · World
Xi Jinping out by June 30?
$1.7m Vol.
$102k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$1.7m Vol.$102k Liq.Ends in 3 months
3%
Yes
Labour leadership election scheduled by ...?
$44k Vol.
$24k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
$44k Vol.$24k Liq.3Ends in 3 months
40%
June 30
Politics
Will Schumer remain Minority Leader through March 31?
$9k Vol.
$2k Liq.
2
Ends in about 11 hours
$9k Vol.$2k Liq.2Ends in about 11 hours
99%
Yes
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
$7.6m Vol.
$212k Liq.
705
Ends in 9 months
$7.6m Vol.$212k Liq.705Ends in 9 months
8%
Yes
Iran leader end of 2026?
$5.6m Vol.
$1.2m Liq.
71
Ends in 9 months
$5.6m Vol.$1.2m Liq.71Ends in 9 months
44%
Mojtaba Khamenei
Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by March 31?
$28k Vol.
$8k Liq.
1
Ends in about 11 hours
$28k Vol.$8k Liq.1Ends in about 11 hours
1%
Yes
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
$900k Vol.
$48k Liq.
46
Ends in 3 months
$900k Vol.$48k Liq.46Ends in 3 months
59%
December 31
EPL · Sports
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026?
$570 Vol.
$1k Liq.
5
Ends in 2 months
$570 Vol.$1k Liq.5Ends in 2 months
43%
Yes
Lecornu out as French PM by...?
$314k Vol.
$19k Liq.
111
Ends in 9 months
$314k Vol.$19k Liq.111Ends in 9 months
36%
December 31, 2026