Peace Agreements Predictions & Odds· 121 markets
I
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
$199k Vol.
$72k Liq.
Ends in 28 days
$199k Vol.$72k Liq.Ends in 28 days
6%
Yes
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
$69k Vol.
$75k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$69k Vol.$75k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
33%
December 31
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
$164k Vol.
$28k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$164k Vol.$28k Liq.Ends in 3 months
16%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
$1k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$1k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.9m Vol.
$386k Liq.
🔥$476k today
Ends in 28 days
$1.9m Vol.🔥$476k today$386k Liq.Ends in 28 days
2%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$4.4m Vol.
$454k Liq.
🔥$262k today
Ends in 3 months
$4.4m Vol.🔥$262k today$454k Liq.Ends in 3 months
10%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
$14k Vol.
$157k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$14k Vol.$157k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
6%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?
$3k Vol.
$83k Liq.
Ends in about 1 year
$3k Vol.$83k Liq.Ends in about 1 year
39%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
$2k Vol.
$119k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
$2k Vol.$119k Liq.Ends in over 1 year
51%
Yes
P
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by...?
$134k Vol.
$8k Liq.
27
Ends in 3 months
$134k Vol.$8k Liq.27Ends in 3 months
28%
Yes
S
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
$61k Vol.
$14k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$61k Vol.$14k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
32%
December 31, 2026
U
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$81.1m Vol.
$2.4m Liq.
🔥$7.8m today
1,409
$81.1m Vol.🔥$7.8m today$2.4m Liq.1,409
73%
December 31
I
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$430k Vol.
$38k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$430k Vol.$38k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
41%
June 30
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$96k Vol.
$20k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$96k Vol.$20k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
28%
Yes
W
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$103k Vol.
$42k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$103k Vol.$42k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
54%
US x Iran Ceasefire
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$75k Vol.
$21k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$75k Vol.$21k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
52%
Yes
I
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
$30k Vol.
$11k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$30k Vol.$11k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
22%
Leadership Change
U
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
$188k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$188k Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in 9 months
25%
Yes
U
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
$70k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$70k Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in 3 months
8%
Yes