Peace Negotiations Predictions & Odds· 109 markets

R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?

11%

Yes

U
US x Iran ceasefire by...?

US x Iran ceasefire by...?

$81.4m Vol.
$2.5m Liq.
🔥$7.5m today
1,411

73%

December 31

I
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?

$432k Vol.
$35k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months

41%

June 30

U
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?

US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?

$96k Vol.
$21k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months

27%

Yes

W
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?

What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?

$103k Vol.
$57k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months

54%

US x Iran Ceasefire

U
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?

US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?

$75k Vol.
$22k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months

53%

Yes

I
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?

Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?

$31k Vol.
$9k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months

22%

Leadership Change

R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

$1.9m Vol.
$452k Liq.
🔥$474k today
Ends in 27 days

2%

Yes

R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

$14k Vol.
$232k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months

5%

Yes

U
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?

Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?

$228k Vol.
$12k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months

6%

Yes

R
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay

Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay

$385k Vol.
$69k Liq.
16
Ends in 9 months

17%

Yes

R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?

$3k Vol.
$120k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year

52%

Yes

R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

$12.4m Vol.
$490k Liq.
🔥$74k today
5,430
Ends in 9 months

30%

Yes

P
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by...?

Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by...?

$134k Vol.
$12k Liq.
27
Ends in 3 months

34%

Yes

R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?

$3k Vol.
$94k Liq.
Ends in about 1 year

39%

Yes

U
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

$188k Vol.
$26k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months

25%

Yes

W
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?

Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?

$207 Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

28%

Yes

I
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

$91k Vol.
$43k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

18%

Yes

W
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?

Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?

$7k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

9%

Yes

W
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

$43k Vol.
$12k Liq.
13
Ends in 27 days

18%

April 30