Polling Predictions & Odds· 130 markets
52%
April 15
Claude 5 released by…?
$2.9m Vol.
$70k Liq.
162
Ends in about 1 month
$2.9m Vol.$70k Liq.162Ends in about 1 month
75%
June 30, 2026
Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by...?
$40k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$40k Vol.$9k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
76%
April 30
Gemini 3.5 released by...?
$807k Vol.
$74k Liq.
49
Ends in 3 months
$807k Vol.$74k Liq.49Ends in 3 months
43%
June 30
Claude Mythos released by…?
$42k Vol.
$14k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
$42k Vol.$14k Liq.1Ends in about 1 month
70%
June 30
50%
June 30
21%
June 30, 2026
82%
December 31, 2026
VEO 4 released by...?
$41k Vol.
$15k Liq.
1
Ends in about 9 hours
$41k Vol.$15k Liq.1Ends in about 9 hours
2%
Yes
55%
April 30
Meta "Mango" model released by...?
$4k Vol.
$3k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
$4k Vol.$3k Liq.3Ends in 3 months
43%
June 30
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?
$30k Vol.
$15k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$30k Vol.$15k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
17%
Yes
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
$5k Vol.
$11k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$5k Vol.$11k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
26%
Yes
6%
Yes
Turnout in 2026 Slovenian Parliamentary Election
$120k Vol.
$20k Liq.
88
Ended
$120k Vol.$20k Liq.88Ended
77%
70–75%
Turnout in 2025 Honduran General Election (Smaller Brackets)
$43k Vol.
$24k Liq.
57
Ended
$43k Vol.$24k Liq.57Ended
54%
59-60%
Turnout in 2026 Hungary Parliamentary Election
$84k Vol.
$60k Liq.
1
Ends in 12 days
$84k Vol.$60k Liq.1Ends in 12 days
45%
71–74%
68%
55-60%