Recount Predictions & Odds· 105 markets
Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory
$40k Vol.
$79k Liq.
1
Ends in about 2 months
$40k Vol.$79k Liq.1Ends in about 2 months
36%
Paxton 9%+
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
$206k Vol.
$65k Liq.
6
Ends in 6 months
$206k Vol.$65k Liq.6Ends in 6 months
38%
Lula da Silva <5%
Peru Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
$7k Vol.
$49k Liq.
Ends in 12 days
$7k Vol.$49k Liq.Ends in 12 days
29%
Keiko Fujimori <5%
98%
Stratton 6–9%
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
$28k Vol.
$46k Liq.
Ends in 7 months
$28k Vol.$46k Liq.Ends in 7 months
46%
Other
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?
$19k Vol.
$42k Liq.
Ends in 4 months
$19k Vol.$42k Liq.Ends in 4 months
69%
Yes
White House # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$53k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
$53k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in 4 days
41%
160-179
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
$0 Vol.
$5k Liq.
2
Ends in 7 months
$0 Vol.$5k Liq.2Ends in 7 months
82%
Yes
NCAA Tournament: Number of Rothstein “This is March” tweets
$28k Vol.
$1k Liq.
4
Ends in 7 days
$28k Vol.$1k Liq.4Ends in 7 days
35%
51–60
White House # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?
$173k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in about 13 hours
$173k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in about 13 hours
89%
160-179
37%
JP
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?
$2k Vol.
$9k Liq.
2
Ends in 7 months
$2k Vol.$9k Liq.2Ends in 7 months
92%
Yes
"I beat Bush" Epstein Email Sender confirmed as ___ ?
$4k Vol.
$13k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$4k Vol.$13k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
68%
Not revealed in 2026
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?
$230k Vol.
$27k Liq.
5
Ends in 21 days
$230k Vol.$27k Liq.5Ends in 21 days
85%
Yes
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election?
$4k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$4k Vol.$15k Liq.Ends in 3 months
9%
Yes
Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff
$4k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$4k Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
38%
0.6–0.9M
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?
$57k Vol.
$13k Liq.
4
Ends in 7 months
$57k Vol.$13k Liq.4Ends in 7 months
2%
Yes
Crypto
Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top ___?
$7k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$7k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
87%
50
Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026?
$38k Vol.
$124k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
$38k Vol.$124k Liq.Ends in 2 months
13%
1320-1359
Elon Musk musk # tweets in April 2026?
$4.4m Vol.
$751k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
$4.4m Vol.$751k Liq.1Ends in about 1 month
9%
1280-1319