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Secretary Predictions & Odds· 158 markets

AllPoliticsIranSyriaTrumpElectionsMiddle EastUnited StatesGavin NewsomIsraelVenezuelaPrimariesCaliforniaWorld AffairsLebanonUS ElectionGlobal ElectionsTaxesGeopoliticsMentionsCabinetMacro GeopoliticsUnited NationsHegsethForeign PolicyWorldEarn 4%CubaVietnamPresidentialCommunistIndictLeavittHFCTexas SenateCornynPaxtonVoter IDU.S. X IranFidelCuba PresidentCommunismMiguel Diaz CanelPCCCommunist Party Of CubaOverthrowCastroRewards 100, 4.5, 100Referendums
P
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?

Politics·Iran

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?

$76k Vol.
$38k Liq.
Ends in 27 days

3%

Yes

N
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

Geopolitics·Israel

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

$408k Vol.
$11k Liq.
18
Ended

38%

June 30, 2026

P
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Politics·U.S. x Iran

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

$2k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

24%

Yes

W
Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?

Politics·United Nations

Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?

$35k Vol.
$3k Liq.
3
Ended

73%

Rafael Grossi

H
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

Politics·Trump

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

$937 Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

19%

Yes

P
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?

Politics·Hegseth

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?

$9k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

14%

Yes

N
Next President of Vietnam

Elections·Global Elections

Next President of Vietnam

$29.3m Vol.
$467k Liq.
🔥$935k today
243
Ended

94%

Tô Lâm

X
Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Geopolitics·world affairs

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

$7.7m Vol.
$303k Liq.
705
Ends in 9 months

8%

Yes

M
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

Politics·Venezuela

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

$964k Vol.
$33k Liq.
47
Ends in 3 months

49%

December 31

X
Xi Jinping out by June 30?

Geopolitics · World

Xi Jinping out by June 30?

$1.7m Vol.
$76k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

2%

Yes

W
Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?

Politics·Middle East

Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?

$574k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ended

3%

Yes

C
Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Geopolitics·Cuba

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

$130k Vol.
$36k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months

33%

Yes

T
Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory

Politics·Primaries

Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory

$44k Vol.
$109k Liq.
1
Ends in about 2 months

28%

Paxton 9%+

C
California voter ID referendum passes?

Politics·California

California voter ID referendum passes?

$4k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in 7 months

21%

Yes

W
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

Politics·Foreign Policy

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

$925k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ended

24%

Yes

W
Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

$422k Vol.
$389k Liq.
1
Ends in 2 months

64%

Eric Swalwell

U
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?

Geopolitics·Trump

US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?

$51k Vol.
$25k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

35%

Yes

P
Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?

Politics·Primaries

Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?

$46k Vol.
$43k Liq.
2
Ends in 2 months

72%

Dem-Rep

W
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?

Politics·Trump

What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?

$296 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 27 days

75%

President 50+ times

B
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

Elections·Taxes

Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

$85k Vol.
$16k Liq.
-2
Ends in 3 months

69%

Yes