Secretary Predictions & Odds· 421 markets

P
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?

$73k Vol.
$36k Liq.
Ends in 28 days

3%

Yes

N
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

$405k Vol.
$21k Liq.
17
Ended

24%

June 30, 2026

W
Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?

Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?

$35k Vol.
$3k Liq.
3
Ended

59%

Rafael Grossi

H
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

$933 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

20%

Yes

P
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

$648 Vol.
$25k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

25%

Yes

P
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?

$9k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

14%

Yes

N
Next President of Vietnam

Next President of Vietnam

$29.1m Vol.
$483k Liq.
🔥$803k today
243
Ended

95%

Tô Lâm

X
Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

$7.7m Vol.
$309k Liq.
🔥$51k today
705
Ends in 9 months

8%

Yes

M
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

$964k Vol.
$31k Liq.
47
Ends in 3 months

49%

December 31

X
Xi Jinping out by June 30?

Geopolitics · World

Xi Jinping out by June 30?

$1.7m Vol.
$73k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

2%

Yes

W
Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?

Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?

$574k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ended

3%

Yes

C
Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

$130k Vol.
$25k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months

33%

Yes

T
Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory

Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory

$43k Vol.
$101k Liq.
1
Ends in about 2 months

30%

Paxton 9%+

W
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

$925k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ended

24%

Yes

W
Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

$422k Vol.
$1.1m Liq.
1
Ends in 2 months

64%

Eric Swalwell

C
California voter ID referendum passes?

California voter ID referendum passes?

$4k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 7 months

22%

Yes

P
Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?

Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?

$46k Vol.
$35k Liq.
2
Ends in 2 months

72%

Dem-Rep

U
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?

US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?

$51k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

35%

Yes

B
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

$85k Vol.
$10k Liq.
-2
Ends in 3 months

69%

Yes

W
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?

What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?

$252 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 28 days

75%

President 50+ times