Tech Policy Predictions & Odds· 114 markets

W
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?

$46k Vol.
$14k Liq.
3
Ends in 28 days

16%

Yes

W
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?

Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?

$7k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

14%

Yes

T
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 20​26?

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 20​26?

$56 Vol.
$782 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month

87%

Up

T
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?

$10k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 11 months

93%

Up

C
California Baptist Lancers vs. Utah Tech Trailblazers (W)

Sports · Basketball

California Baptist Lancers vs. Utah Tech Trailblazers (W)

$0 Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

California Baptist Lancers

G
GPT-5.5 released by...?

GPT-5.5 released by...?

$301k Vol.
$18k Liq.
4

93%

June 30

B
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET

$89k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

Up

B
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET

$164k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

Down

B
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET

$75k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

Down

B
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET

$143k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

Down

L
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Rice Owls (W)

Games · NCAA

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Rice Owls (W)

$0 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ended

15%

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

B
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET

$69k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

Down

B
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET

$56k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

Down

B
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET

$49k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

Down

B
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET

$60k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

Up

B
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

$21k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

Down

B
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

$2 Vol.
$618 Liq.
Ends in about 14 hours

50%

Up

B
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

$0 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in about 10 hours

51%

Up

M
Miami Hurricanes vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (W)

Games · NCAA

Miami Hurricanes vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (W)

$3k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

B
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET

$82k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

Up