Tech Policy Predictions & Odds· 110 markets
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
$45k Vol.
$10k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$45k Vol.$10k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
18%
Yes
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?
$7k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$7k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 9 months
13%
Yes
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?
$13k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$13k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
2%
Yes
8%
Yes
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
$73k Vol.
$5k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$73k Vol.$5k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
42%
Yes
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 2026?
$0 Vol.
$137 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$0 Vol.$137 Liq.Ends in about 1 month
82%
Up
45%
Yes
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in February, 2026?
$6k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$6k Vol.$1k Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
9%
Up
77%
Up
10%
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?
$12k Vol.
$2k Liq.
10
Ends in 9 months
$12k Vol.$2k Liq.10Ends in 9 months
35%
Yes
White House # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$52k Vol.
$32k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
$52k Vol.$32k Liq.Ends in 4 days
41%
160-179
White House # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?
$150k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
$150k Vol.$21k Liq.Ends in 1 day
69%
160-179
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$100k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
25%
Yes
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$28k Vol.
$14k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$28k Vol.$14k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
41%
April 30
1%
Yes
Games · NCAA
Miami Hurricanes vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (W)
$3k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
$3k Vol.$0 Liq.Ended
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
22%
December 31, 2026