Outage Predictions & Odds· 163 markets
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?
$13k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in about 16 hours
$13k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in about 16 hours
3%
Yes
8%
Yes
Middle East · Iran Regime
Internet Access restored in Iran by...?
$100k Vol.
$15k Liq.
27
Ends in about 1 month
$100k Vol.$15k Liq.27Ends in about 1 month
17%
April 30
Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?
$344k Vol.
$27k Liq.
23
Ends in 3 months
$344k Vol.$27k Liq.23Ends in 3 months
75%
May 31
Will Claude go down on __ days in April?
$9k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$9k Vol.$20k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
38%
9-11
Critical Discord Incident by April 30?
$1k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$1k Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
20%
Yes
AWS service disrupted by April 30?
$698 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$698 Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
52%
Yes
Services Down Parlay
$13k Vol.
$2k Liq.
5
Ends in about 16 hours
$13k Vol.$2k Liq.5Ends in about 16 hours
4%
Yes
AWS service disrupted by March 31?
$13k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in about 16 hours
$13k Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in about 16 hours
4%
Yes
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on March 30?
$7k Vol.
$255 Liq.
Ends in about 12 hours
$7k Vol.$255 Liq.Ends in about 12 hours
35%
Up
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on March 30?
$21k Vol.
$10 Liq.
Ends in about 12 hours
$21k Vol.$10 Liq.Ends in about 12 hours
51%
Up
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on March 30?
$2k Vol.
$363 Liq.
Ends in about 12 hours
$2k Vol.$363 Liq.Ends in about 12 hours
47%
Up
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on March 30?
$1k Vol.
$22 Liq.
Ends in about 13 hours
$1k Vol.$22 Liq.Ends in about 13 hours
60%
Up
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on March 30?
$618 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in about 13 hours
$618 Vol.$1k Liq.Ends in about 13 hours
61%
Up
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on March 30?
$165 Vol.
$212 Liq.
Ends in about 12 hours
$165 Vol.$212 Liq.Ends in about 12 hours
53%
Up
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on March 30?
$91 Vol.
$180 Liq.
Ends in about 12 hours
$91 Vol.$180 Liq.Ends in about 12 hours
58%
Up
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on March 30?
$10 Vol.
$189 Liq.
Ends in about 12 hours
$10 Vol.$189 Liq.Ends in about 12 hours
51%
Up
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on March 30?
$12 Vol.
$245 Liq.
Ends in about 12 hours
$12 Vol.$245 Liq.Ends in about 12 hours
49%
Up
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on March 30?
$0 Vol.
$9 Liq.
Ends in about 12 hours
$0 Vol.$9 Liq.Ends in about 12 hours
50%
Up