Tech Policy Predictions & Odds· 110 markets
W
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
$46k Vol.
$20k Liq.
3
Ends in 27 days
$46k Vol.$20k Liq.3Ends in 27 days
16%
Yes
W
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?
$7k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$7k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
C
65%
April 17
U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
$73k Vol.
$9k Liq.
7
Ends in 9 months
$73k Vol.$9k Liq.7Ends in 9 months
44%
Yes
T
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 2026?
$56 Vol.
$782 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$56 Vol.$782 Liq.Ends in about 1 month
87%
Up
M
51%
Yes
T
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026?
$10k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 11 months
$10k Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in 11 months
92%
Up
W
White House # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026?
$11k Vol.
$33k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$11k Vol.$33k Liq.Ends in 8 days
36%
160-179
A
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?
$12k Vol.
$4k Liq.
13
Ends in 9 months
$12k Vol.$4k Liq.13Ends in 9 months
18%
Yes
L
15%
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
W
White House # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$131k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
$131k Vol.$16k Liq.Ends in 1 day
83%
200+
O
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$102k Vol.
$9k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$102k Vol.$9k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
5%
Yes
W
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$43k Vol.
$12k Liq.
13
Ends in 27 days
$43k Vol.$12k Liq.13Ends in 27 days
18%
April 30
A
20%
Yes
W
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
$252k Vol.
$2k Liq.
31
Ended
$252k Vol.$2k Liq.31Ended
34%
Yes
A
3%
Yes
M
Games · NCAA
Miami Hurricanes vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (W)
$3k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
$3k Vol.$0 Liq.Ended
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
W
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
$2.6m Vol.
$154k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$2.6m Vol.$154k Liq.Ends in 9 months
47%
Pam Bondi