Tech Policy Predictions & Odds· 110 markets

W
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?

$46k Vol.
$20k Liq.
3
Ends in 27 days

16%

Yes

W
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?

Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?

$7k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

14%

Yes

C
ChatGPT Full Outage by April 10?

ChatGPT Full Outage by April 10?

$1k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 7 days

6%

Yes

C
ChatGPT Outage by...?

ChatGPT Outage by...?

$30k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 14 days

65%

April 17

U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

$73k Vol.
$9k Liq.
7
Ends in 9 months

44%

Yes

T
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 20​26?

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in Q1, 20​26?

$56 Vol.
$782 Liq.
Ends in about 1 month

87%

Up

M
MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

$2.0m Vol.
$14k Liq.
108
Ends in 3 months

51%

Yes

T
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?

$10k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 11 months

92%

Up

W
White House # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026?

White House # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026?

$11k Vol.
$33k Liq.
Ends in 8 days

36%

160-179

A
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?

AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?

$12k Vol.
$4k Liq.
13
Ends in 9 months

18%

Yes

L
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Rice Owls (W)

Games · NCAA

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Rice Owls (W)

$0 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ended

15%

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

W
White House # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?

White House # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?

$131k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in 1 day

83%

200+

O
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

$102k Vol.
$9k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months

5%

Yes

W
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

$43k Vol.
$12k Liq.
13
Ends in 27 days

18%

April 30

H
Hyperliquid airdrop by ....?

Hyperliquid airdrop by ....?

$437k Vol.
$6k Liq.
27

37%

Yes

A
AI bubble burst by...?

AI bubble burst by...?

$2.5m Vol.
$13k Liq.
102
Ends in 9 months

20%

Yes

W
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

$252k Vol.
$2k Liq.
31
Ended

34%

Yes

A
Anthropic CEO arrested?

Anthropic CEO arrested?

$142k Vol.
$21k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months

3%

Yes

M
Miami Hurricanes vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (W)

Games · NCAA

Miami Hurricanes vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (W)

$3k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

W
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

$2.6m Vol.
$154k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

47%

Pam Bondi