Sama Altman 预测与赔率· 122 个市场

G
GPT-6 released by…?

GPT-6 released by…?

$385k 交易量
$21k 流动性
40
已结束

83%

December 31, 2026

W
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

$252k 交易量
$3k 流动性
31
已结束

35%

Yes

L
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

$1.6m 交易量
$272k 流动性
10
9 个月后结束

90%

SpaceX

O
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

$1.4m 交易量
$21k 流动性
2
超过 1 年后结束

75%

$800B

G
GPT-5.5 released by...?

GPT-5.5 released by...?

$298k 交易量
$19k 流动性
4

97%

June 30

W
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

$51k 交易量
$5k 流动性
超过 1 年后结束

61%

Anthropic

W
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?

Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?

$57k 交易量
$8k 流动性
1
超过 1 年后结束

96%

SpaceX

W
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?

What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?

$114k 交易量
$7k 流动性
12
9 个月后结束

38%

Head-mounted display

O
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

$242k 交易量
$9k 流动性
11
9 个月后结束

25%

Yes

S
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

$7k 交易量
$3k 流动性
5
超过 1 年后结束

74%

SpaceX

O
Over 30M humans verified on World Network by December 31?

Over 30M humans verified on World Network by December 31?

$0 交易量
$3k 流动性
9 个月后结束

22%

Yes

W
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

$92k 交易量
$21k 流动性
15
9 个月后结束

39%

Yes

W
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?

Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?

$0 交易量
$5k 流动性
3 个月后结束

37%

Yes

S
Sam Altman in jail by...?

Sam Altman in jail by...?

$41k 交易量
$6k 流动性
6
已结束

3%

Yes

O
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

$102k 交易量
$9k 流动性
2
3 个月后结束

7%

Yes

O
OpenAI acquired before 2027?

OpenAI acquired before 2027?

$0 交易量
$2k 流动性
9 个月后结束

12%

Yes

W
Which CEOs will be out before 2027?

Which CEOs will be out before 2027?

$545k 交易量
$46k 流动性
20
9 个月后结束

36%

Dan Clancy - Twitch

W
What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (April 3)

What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (April 3)

$117 交易量
$3k 流动性
1 天后结束

88%

Trump

O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

$45k 交易量
$11k 流动性
9
9 个月后结束

20%

Yes

S
Shōnan Bellmāre vs. Thespa Gunma

Sports · Japan J2 League

Shōnan Bellmāre vs. Thespa Gunma

$0 交易量
$104 流动性
16 天后结束

50%

Shōnan Bellmāre