538 Approval Rating Predictions & Odds· 105 markets
37%
39.5–39.9
How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
$3k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$3k Vol.$20k Liq.Ends in 9 months
13%
↑ 44%
How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
$41k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$41k Vol.$15k Liq.Ends in 9 months
32%
35%
48%
Up
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?
$13k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$13k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
2%
Yes
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?
$57k Vol.
$13k Liq.
4
Ends in 7 months
$57k Vol.$13k Liq.4Ends in 7 months
2%
Yes
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
$4.2m Vol.
$429k Liq.
139
Ends in 7 months
$4.2m Vol.$429k Liq.139Ends in 7 months
50%
Democrats Sweep
8%
Yes
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?
$2k Vol.
$10k Liq.
2
Ends in 7 months
$2k Vol.$10k Liq.2Ends in 7 months
92%
Yes
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
$0 Vol.
$6k Liq.
2
Ends in 7 months
$0 Vol.$6k Liq.2Ends in 7 months
82%
Yes
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?
$15k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ended
$15k Vol.$6k Liq.Ended
4%
Yes
2026 U.S. House election: Republicans flip the Democrats by...?
$55k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$55k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
0%
Yes
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
$943.0m Vol.
$39.1m Liq.
🔥$8.6m today
628
Ends in over 2 years
$943.0m Vol.🔥$8.6m today$39.1m Liq.628Ends in over 2 years
24%
Gavin Newsom
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?
$22k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$22k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
17%
Yes
Economy · Politics
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
$8k Vol.
$9k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months
$8k Vol.$9k Liq.4Ends in 9 months
36%
Yes
Who will vote "Yea" on the DHS Appropriations Act, 2026 by March 31?
$81k Vol.
$54k Liq.
1
Ends in about 5 hours
$81k Vol.$54k Liq.1Ends in about 5 hours
5%
Jacky Rosen
Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?
$551k Vol.
$12k Liq.
28
Ends in about 5 hours
$551k Vol.$12k Liq.28Ends in about 5 hours
51%
December 31, 2026
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
$28k Vol.
$30k Liq.
Ends in 7 months
$28k Vol.$30k Liq.Ends in 7 months
46%
Other
Zelenskyy # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$3k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 4 days
$3k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 4 days
41%
60-79