Bank Failure Predictions & Odds· 106 markets
Another US bank failure by March 31?
$104k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$104k Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
2%
Yes
US bank failure by April 30?
$7k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$7k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
25%
Yes
Which banks will fail by June 30?
$357k Vol.
$93k Liq.
7
Ends in 3 months
$357k Vol.$93k Liq.7Ends in 3 months
3%
Scotiabank
27%
Yes
What will Bitcoin outperform in March?
$99k Vol.
$33k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$99k Vol.$33k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
99%
Gold
Bank of Israel Decision in May?
$11k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$11k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
68%
No Change
77%
25 bps Increase
ECB Interest Rates: April 2026
$215k Vol.
$60k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$215k Vol.$60k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
62%
No change
76%
Decrease
Bank of Brazil Decision in April?
$173k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 28 days
$173k Vol.$22k Liq.Ends in 28 days
80%
Decrease
48%
Increase
85%
Nothing
Bank of Mexico Decision in May
$4k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$4k Vol.$13k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
79%
No change
94%
No Change
South African Reserve Bank Decision in May?
$3k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$3k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
64%
No Change
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
$0 Vol.
$18k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$0 Vol.$18k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
5%
Yes
2%
Yes
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
$12k Vol.
$11k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$12k Vol.$11k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
17%
Yes
90%
Decrease