Bank Failure Predictions & Odds· 106 markets
Another US bank failure by March 31?
$103k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$103k Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
2%
Yes
US bank failure by April 30?
$7k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$7k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
25%
Yes
Which banks will fail by June 30?
$355k Vol.
$97k Liq.
7
Ends in 3 months
$355k Vol.$97k Liq.7Ends in 3 months
2%
Scotiabank
25%
Yes
What will Bitcoin outperform in March?
$97k Vol.
$31k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$97k Vol.$31k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
99%
Gold
Bank of Israel Decision in May?
$10k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$10k Vol.$11k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
62%
No Change
77%
25 bps Increase
ECB Interest Rates: April 2026
$215k Vol.
$62k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$215k Vol.$62k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
63%
No change
76%
Decrease
Bank of Brazil Decision in April?
$172k Vol.
$31k Liq.
Ends in 28 days
$172k Vol.$31k Liq.Ends in 28 days
82%
Decrease
50%
No change
85%
Nothing
Bank of Mexico Decision in May
$4k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$4k Vol.$12k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
78%
No change
Reserve Bank of India decision in April
$4k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$4k Vol.$10k Liq.Ends in 8 days
93%
No Change
South African Reserve Bank Decision in May?
$3k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$3k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
63%
No Change
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
$0 Vol.
$28k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$0 Vol.$28k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
5%
Yes
2%
Yes
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
$12k Vol.
$18k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$12k Vol.$18k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
17%
Yes
90%
Decrease