Claude 5 Predictions & Odds· 151 markets
Claude 5 released by…?
$2.9m Vol.
$68k Liq.
163
Ends in about 1 month
$2.9m Vol.$68k Liq.163Ends in about 1 month
75%
June 30, 2026
Anthropic Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
$188k Vol.
$12k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
$188k Vol.$12k Liq.3Ends in 3 months
91%
35%+
Anthropic Claude score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?
$56k Vol.
$1k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$56k Vol.$1k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
56%
Yes
Which company will have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
$1.2m Vol.
$170k Liq.
21
Ends in about 5 hours
$1.2m Vol.$170k Liq.21Ends in about 5 hours
99%
OpenAI
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
$51k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in almost 2 years
$51k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in almost 2 years
68%
Anthropic
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
$93k Vol.
$25k Liq.
Ends in almost 2 years
$93k Vol.$25k Liq.Ends in almost 2 years
77%
600B+
14%
Yes
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?
$11k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$11k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 9 months
89%
Yes
Claude Mythos released by…?
$42k Vol.
$14k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
$42k Vol.$14k Liq.1Ends in about 1 month
70%
June 30
49%
June 30
Will Claude go down on __ days in April?
$10k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$10k Vol.$13k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
42%
9-11
counter strike 2 · Sports
Will BC.Game make a roster move before May?
$43k Vol.
$128 Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
$43k Vol.$128 Liq.1Ends in about 1 month
46%
Yes
No release by February 28
Will Claude pass Grok by November 15 on the UnifAI Polyarena?
$137k Vol.
$0 Liq.
8
Ended
$137k Vol.$0 Liq.8Ended
No
Which company has the #1 AI model end of February? (Style Control On)
$854k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
$854k Vol.$0 Liq.Ended
Anthropic
Which company has the #2 AI model end of February? (Style Control On)
$184k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
$184k Vol.$0 Liq.Ended
Anthropic
Which company has the second best AI model end of February?
$982k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
$982k Vol.$0 Liq.Ended
Anthropic
Anthropic
