Climate Weather Predictions & Odds· 260 markets
W
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
$36k Vol.
$5k Liq.
4
Ends in about 2 months
$36k Vol.$5k Liq.4Ends in about 2 months
7%
Yes
H
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?
$1.8m Vol.
$62k Liq.
22
Ends in 3 months
$1.8m Vol.$62k Liq.22Ends in 3 months
82%
8+
H
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$28k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$1.1m Vol.$28k Liq.Ends in 9 months
28%
14–16
W
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
$2.4m Vol.
$129k Liq.
17
Ends in 9 months
$2.4m Vol.$129k Liq.17Ends in 9 months
46%
2
M
March 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
$225k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$225k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in 8 days
64%
1.25–1.29ºC
2
2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
$279k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$279k Vol.$20k Liq.Ends in 8 days
99%
4th or lower
N
30%
Yes
M
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
$7.5m Vol.
$43k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$7.5m Vol.$43k Liq.Ends in 9 months
98%
↑2k
H
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
$677k Vol.
$18k Liq.
9
Ends in 12 months
$677k Vol.$18k Liq.9Ends in 12 months
45%
1
H
How many Tornadoes in the US in March?
$181k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$181k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in 8 days
100%
150+
M
Weather · climate
Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?
$44k Vol.
$5k Liq.
2
Ended
$44k Vol.$5k Liq.2Ended
96%
14.2-14.4m sq km
9
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$174k Vol.
$8k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$174k Vol.$8k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
12%
Yes
N
Natural Disaster · Science
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
$329k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$329k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
41%
Yes
W
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$315k Vol.
$5k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$315k Vol.$5k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
33%
Yes
W
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
$112k Vol.
$5k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$112k Vol.$5k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
73%
Yes
M
Weather · climate
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
$29k Vol.
$4k Liq.
6
Ends in 6 months
$29k Vol.$4k Liq.6Ends in 6 months
38%
<4m sq km
1
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$530k Vol.
$28k Liq.
26
Ends in 9 months
$530k Vol.$28k Liq.26Ends in 9 months
6%
Yes
W
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$117k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$117k Vol.$10k Liq.Ends in 9 months
13%
Yes
1
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
$102k Vol.
$12k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$102k Vol.$12k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
4%
Yes
M
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$140k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$140k Vol.$11k Liq.Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes