Climate Predictions & Odds· 147 markets
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$309k Vol.
$8k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$309k Vol.$8k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
40%
Yes
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
$11k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
$11k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 2 months
7%
Yes
Natural Disaster · Science
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
$326k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
$326k Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in 2 months
29%
Yes
Weather · climate
Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?
$34k Vol.
$16k Liq.
2
Ends in 1 day
$34k Vol.$16k Liq.2Ends in 1 day
95%
14.2-14.4m sq km
30%
Yes
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
$38k Vol.
$19k Liq.
8
Ends in about 1 year
$38k Vol.$19k Liq.8Ends in about 1 year
12%
Yes
Weather · climate
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
$28k Vol.
$5k Liq.
6
Ends in 6 months
$28k Vol.$5k Liq.6Ends in 6 months
39%
<4m sq km
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
$3.9m Vol.
$182k Liq.
🔥$124k today
170
Ends in almost 2 years
$3.9m Vol.🔥$124k today$182k Liq.170Ends in almost 2 years
62%
Other
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)
$2.9m Vol.
$221k Liq.
🔥$70k today
43
Ends in almost 2 years
$2.9m Vol.🔥$70k today$221k Liq.43Ends in almost 2 years
94%
1T+
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
$7.5m Vol.
$33k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$7.5m Vol.$33k Liq.Ends in 9 months
98%
↑2k
Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?
$1.2m Vol.
$87k Liq.
16
Ends in almost 2 years
$1.2m Vol.$87k Liq.16Ends in almost 2 years
40%
Bank of America
NASA Artemis II
$697k Vol.
$26k Liq.
94
Ends in about 14 hours
$697k Vol.$26k Liq.94Ends in about 14 hours
83%
April 30
Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?
$386k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in about 14 hours
$386k Vol.$21k Liq.Ends in about 14 hours
1%
1600
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$32k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$1.1m Vol.$32k Liq.Ends in 9 months
28%
11–13
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
$666k Vol.
$21k Liq.
9
Ends in about 1 year
$666k Vol.$21k Liq.9Ends in about 1 year
43%
1
Precipitation in Seattle in March?
$321k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in about 14 hours
$321k Vol.$14k Liq.Ends in about 14 hours
94%
5-6"
Precipitation in NYC in March?
$172k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in about 14 hours
$172k Vol.$11k Liq.Ends in about 14 hours
90%
3-4"
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
$348k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$348k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in 9 months
36%
5-6
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)
$649k Vol.
$94k Liq.
8
Ends in almost 2 years
$649k Vol.$94k Liq.8Ends in almost 2 years
46%
2.0T+