Climate Predictions & Odds· 140 markets
N
30%
Yes
$194k Vol.
$22k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
M
42%
<4m sq km
$29k Vol.
$6k Liq.
6
Ends in 6 months
N
Natural Disaster · Science
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
$330k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
40%
Yes
$330k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
M
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
$38k Vol.$19k Liq.9Ends in 12 months
11%
Yes
$38k Vol.
$19k Liq.
9
Ends in 12 months
W
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$315k Vol.$6k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
35%
Yes
$315k Vol.
$6k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
W
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
$12k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
6%
Yes
$12k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
S
95%
>$1T
$1.0m Vol.
$137k Liq.
16
Ends in over 1 year
W
47%
$X
$4.2m Vol.
$157k Liq.
176
Ends in over 1 year
M
46%
>1.29ºC
$255k Vol.
$28k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
2
2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
$294k Vol.$22k Liq.Ends in 5 days
99%
4th or lower
$294k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
W
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
$2.4m Vol.$157k Liq.17Ends in 9 months
45%
2
$2.4m Vol.
$157k Liq.
17
Ends in 9 months
H
86%
8+
$1.8m Vol.
$54k Liq.
23
Ends in 3 months
H
99%
150+
$191k Vol.
$32k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
S
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)
$3.0m Vol.$214k Liq.42Ends in over 1 year
96%
1T+
$3.0m Vol.
$214k Liq.
42
Ends in over 1 year
L
44%
Morgan Stanley
$1.3m Vol.
$75k Liq.
17
Ends in over 1 year
H
4%
Yes
$1.9m Vol.
$37k Liq.
28
Ends in 9 months
S
45%
2.0T+
$671k Vol.
$103k Liq.
8
Ends in over 1 year
M
99%
↑2k
$7.5m Vol.
$57k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
H
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
$679k Vol.$16k Liq.9Ends in 12 months
44%
1
$679k Vol.
$16k Liq.
9
Ends in 12 months
L
90%
SpaceX
$1.6m Vol.
$271k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months